6H of consolidation or maybe confused. Directionless.
I think it will be in this range until the NFP.
Not too bullish on USD.
I think it will be in this range until the NFP.
Not too bullish on USD.
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Dislikedhey gator, I think that what you told me about oil and gold yesterday you were 100% right. According to daily doji I think we are going to see bear candles in the upcoming days.. what do you think would be some major supports?Ignored
DislikedIf i wasn't paying attention to the range-consolidation, and just looked at the monthly chart, i'd say EU has finished it's monthly retrace and now will be headed down, to around 1.35, by end of month.
1.43 seems ready to crack any minute.Ignored
Dislikedchina said its gonna slow down easy money... so commodities and commodity currency should take a hit.. this strengthens usd.. we may drop before nfp...at any moment.. but its just speculation on my part.. many will be left holding the bag and may be less likely to trade commodities for lack of cash after.. catipilar laid off ... goldmen stocks have been going lower.. as they pumped up eu and commodities and dumped the usd.. at least they said dump it *L*Ignored
Dislikedbalance you have to put a sl before going to sleep ... freindly adviceIgnored
FX Closing Note: Nonfarm payrolls scenarios for tomorrow
Market Action
Few developments in today's NY session worth significant focus after a rather heavy news flow in Asia and Europe. EURUSD has mostly fibrillated within a two-figure range over the last three weeks, which likely sets up a break-out day for the greenback one way or another after tomorrow's US employment report. The noise on the street seems to be leaning towards a positive data point, so a very positive data point may be necessary to move the markets beyond what is already priced in (we offer a few scenarios at the end of this article on the market’s reaction to the employment report). As pointed out in our articles from earlier today, the statistical assumptions and adjustments will give a positive bias to the numbers, and are potentially rather large. The real state of the job market is still worrisome if we consider the ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-index from Wednesday.
Lets see how positive it is
Looking ahead
US employment report is now in the crosshairs for tomorrow with near unanimous expectations for a positive number, so we may need a barn-burner to move markets beyond their current ranges. A trio of potential scenarios for tomorrow:
One: a massive upside surprise in payrolls triggers a hefty spike higher in interest rates. Could this finally test every-rising asset markets? After all, isn't much of the current rise in asset markets predicated on "low rates forever"? This would seem to offer the most downside for the pro-risk currencies like AUD and NZD and possibly also CAD
Two: The data is inline to slightly positive and bonds rally since an even better reading is already priced into the market. In this scenario, the market is simply discounting seasonal factors in the numbers and we see a more. If asset markets fall as well, the JPY would benefit the most in this scenario and the USD would likely suffer along with commodity currencies.
Three: Strong data, strong risk-positive reaction and bonds fall heavily. This is the strongest scenario for the USD.
DislikedI just analysed how market acted december 4th after nfp release and there was a strong dollar bull move.. so imo i think that tomorrow usdx could make it through 78.40 and go higher (if the news come out positive and the reaction will be the same)..Ignored
DislikedJohn J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
[left]FX Closing Note: Nonfarm payrolls scenarios for tomorrow
Market Action
Few developments in today's NY session worth significant focus after a rather heavy news flow in Asia and Europe. EURUSD has mostly fibrillated within a two-figure range over the last three weeks, which likely sets up a break-out day for the greenback one way or another after tomorrow's US employment report. The noise on the street seems to be leaning towards a positive data point, so a very positive...Ignored
Dislikedthanks man nice website.
i hope it does not break cos i dont now how to fix it. I think .4444 will b important level this week.Ignored