Dislikedlots of curve fitting, going on after the fact, explanations, happening.. if one wants to know why the usd weakened, they need to look beyond their trading careers to where it started. a hint would be "all modern recessions in the u.s, started with a spike in oil before." what that tells u is the usd and the u.s. economy is strongly linked to oil. as u.s. oil production goes up, so does the usd. and as it goes up, spikes in oil will have less recession affect then it did in the last 44 years. in the multiple affect of manufactures seeking cheaper...Ignored
negativ correlation between Oil and USD
http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/doll...storical-chart
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/0...58328120110719
short term view from BofA: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-oi...lations-2013-3 (that is from 2013)
Commodity prices and currency movements:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...currencies.asp
Understanding the Correlation between Oil Prices and the Falling Dollar
http://www.cfr.org/international-fin...-dollar/p16569
What Drives the Oil-Dollar Correlation?
Christian Grisse
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
December 2010
https://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j...,d.ZWU&cad=rja
"Conclusions
Oil prices and exchange rates tend to move together, and appear to have been negatively related in
recent years: during the 2003-2008 oil price boom and during the nancial crisis, Dollar depreciation
(appreciation) was typically associated with higher (lower) oil prices. This paper investigates the
relationship between oil prices and the US Dollar nominal e¤ective exchange rate using a structural
model that is fully identified ed by exploiting the heteroskedasticity in the data, following Rigobon
(2003). In contrast to the previous literature this allows us to identify the short-run comovements
of oil prices and the Dollar. We control for effects of US and global economic developments on
oil prices and exchange rates by including measures of the surprise component of economic news
releases.
The results indicate that higher oil prices lead to a depreciation of the Dollar both in the short
run within the same week and (in line with some of the previous literature) over longer horizons.
We also found that Dollar depreciation is associated with higher oil prices within the same week. In
the long run, fluctuations in interest rates explain most of the variation of oil prices and exchange
rates."