This certainly does not look like any ‘spike-up’ or ‘short-term break-out’ to me any longer and I feel it’s more fundy driven with techs giving me entries and exits. With the ‘pundits’ or ‘experts’ putting a 90% plus probability of a ¾% additional drop in rates in the US next week (leaving US with a .25% fed rate), along with this additional ‘bailout’ of the US auto industry, coupled with Europeans hoping (tongue and cheek here) that the euro recession will be shorter than the US; is what is driving a weaker $.
Since October 22nd; we’ve been ranging from 1.3060 down to 1.2455 hitting the lower value 3 times and the upper value 3 times, with one spike to the 38.2% fib level set at 1.4871 to 1.2327. Yesterdays candle touched the upper end of range and closed slightly below, this current candle blew right on by 1.3060 and is now headed back to the 38.2% fib at 1.3299. A close above the 38.2% IMO; will give me an indication that the 50% might be attempted. Though, I think probably not in the near future.
I think this move up is the big boys valuing the price of the expected Fed rate cut next week, before it happens. Once things settle down, the holidays are past us and the auto bailout is forgotten, we’ll move back into range mode until people get a feel of what Obama is likely to do to influence our economy and others. If it is good – the $ gains strength, if not, well – I’m moving to the hills with my family and lots of food and guns – lol.
My .02 (o.k. .03) cents worth –
SeerEye
Since October 22nd; we’ve been ranging from 1.3060 down to 1.2455 hitting the lower value 3 times and the upper value 3 times, with one spike to the 38.2% fib level set at 1.4871 to 1.2327. Yesterdays candle touched the upper end of range and closed slightly below, this current candle blew right on by 1.3060 and is now headed back to the 38.2% fib at 1.3299. A close above the 38.2% IMO; will give me an indication that the 50% might be attempted. Though, I think probably not in the near future.
I think this move up is the big boys valuing the price of the expected Fed rate cut next week, before it happens. Once things settle down, the holidays are past us and the auto bailout is forgotten, we’ll move back into range mode until people get a feel of what Obama is likely to do to influence our economy and others. If it is good – the $ gains strength, if not, well – I’m moving to the hills with my family and lots of food and guns – lol.
My .02 (o.k. .03) cents worth –
SeerEye
Pip what you see; See what you pip!