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AUD/USD

that was an amazing head fake that just occurred
Quoting dab
I'd find the RBA keeping rates on hold more depressing than funny because that would leave only US Fiscal cliff to give us some action in the next month or two unless Europe lights up again given no RBA meet in Jan.

Given that the longer AUD is high the more damage to manufacturing, tourism etc I suspect the harder it will fall in the future. Big question is when? (sorry to disappoint but I don't have the answer)
Personally I love the rba rate decisions whether if its a cut or hold. If its a hold with the high % right now expecting a rate cut we'll get some action. If its a cut we'll get some action. Unlike other central banks the RBA releases the data right on the dot on the their website so we can scrape it right away and get a fill nearly instantly.

As for the tourism and manufacturing etc. The fx impact is overrated imo since tourism was even better when the dollar was @ 1.10 (b/c the global economy was in better shape). Manufacturing wasn't all that big in Australia to begin with. Mining is settled through long term contracts which has been sideways/slightly lower. Retailers benefit from higher aud and so do consumers like me who like to spend on Christmas.
Quoting Tim_isoara
Your chart please.
it is very bearish on the weekly and monthly chart.
some of the experts of the big funds can see it.
actual bearish technicals meet RBA need to print, to satisfy external demand for their currency.
but you can't have both things; print and bull...
the AUD have been kept at this level only by retailer which strongly believe [with good reason] in AUD potential.

sorry, i can't give numbers, forecasts or charts.
just recommendations' don't sleep too much if you are long and use low leverage and tight SL, IF YOU'RE LONG.

1.0465 at my last intervention.
1.0421 now, after the euro&bros went up...

Edit; forgot to say; AUD is evil ! It can reverse priority print/bull , bull/print, so it can go up again... Only the RBA knows what will be first; print or bull.
I think we can pretty much sum up that this impulse candle will be filled now in a matter of days if not today. China coming out could halt it for today but come Sunday. Monday we should see a fill

Thoughts? disagree?
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Quoting jplazard
I think we can pretty much sum up that this impulse candle will be filled now in a matter of days if not today. China coming out could halt it for today but come Sunday. Monday we should see a fill

Thoughts? disagree?
I agree. The rising trend line and horizontal at 1.0394 make for a good short term target.
Trade YOUR plan.
took positions according to daily / weekly / monthly
I'm -4000 pips from aud crosses

I don't expect any movement till monday & sunday,
next week will be very crucial as the last months perf. results will be unveiled

Mon:
AUD
Retail Sales m/m

Tue:
AUD
Building Approvals m/m

AUD
Cash Rate

AUD
RBA Rate Statement

Wed:
AUD
GDP q/q

Thu:
AUD
Employment Change

AUD
Unemployment Rate

Fri:
AUD
Trade Balance

FINGERS CROSSED =)
futures at 1.0404 lets see what happens if we tap that there might be some bids come in
Sir Wilow

NO! how can you see the monthly bearish? if it is easy to read M,then trading should be too??

What about weekly???
Thank you F.
Quoting Zircon
Sir Wilow

NO! how can you see the monthly bearish? if it is easy to read M,then trading should be too??

What about weekly???


I think price gonna travels up in future???
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Thank you F.
Quoting Willow
it

sorry, i can't give numbers, forecasts or charts.
just recommendations' don't sleep too much if you are long and use low leverage and tight SL, IF YOU'RE LONG.

1.0465 at my last intervention.
1.0421 now, after the euro&bros went up...

Edit; forgot to say; AUD is evil ! It can reverse priority print/bull , bull/print, so it can go up again... Only the RBA knows what will be first; print or bull.
Willow You dont have charts? You dont trade?
And Yes AUD is Evil is Dracula is Batman HaHaHa 're a funny guy
1.04 just tapped on AUfutures and was picked up by alot of 7-10 lots never traded below Going to bed now as this will look to test again in NY unless some news comes out
market narrow, not a good time to take risk.

i am expecting current situation to continue, ie narrow ranges and indexes to continue creep up, pissing off everyone that is not long indexes.

also expecting not much reaction after slash of rate for 25 pips in aud. except markets up. Explanation - already priced in aud.

also, overvaluation of aud is worn out story. Retailers benefit from that, and not opposite as everything is made in china as some other poster mentioned. AU manuafacturing - never existed in a meaningful way. Reason - because AU has adapted other economy to dollar driven by resources cycle. Impossible to have sustainablre profitable export industry with rates fluctuating every 30 years 5:1 or so...

Note that around 1900 daily salary in AU was more than eu or us average monthly. So, sure this can repeat.

Also, tourism - there was little tourists from eu and US when aud was low, so who cares. Currently mainly from asia. Their currenciers keep up pretty well with aud.

anyway, looks like I am done for 2012 . time for HOLIDAYS

I will look here and there just in case i am wrong....
Quoting openyoureyes
took positions according to daily / weekly / monthly
I'm -4000 pips from aud crosses

I don't expect any movement till monday & sunday,
next week will be very crucial as the last months perf. results will be unveiled

Mon:
AUD
Retail Sales m/m

Tue:
AUD
Building Approvals m/m

AUD
Cash Rate

AUD
RBA Rate Statement

Wed:
AUD
GDP q/q

Thu:
AUD
Employment Change

AUD
Unemployment Rate

Fri:
AUD
Trade Balance

FINGERS CROSSED =)...

There's also Chinese Manufacturing PMI to be released around Saturday lunchtime (12.pm SYD)
Expectation is 50.8 . A result below 50 or above 51.5 will have the AUD crosses re-opening well away from their weekly closing levels.
Quoting jplazard
that was an amazing head fake that just occurred
U know whats even more amazing?? Ive been bearish and i keep telling ppl here my bias still bearish for as long as we stay below 1.0550/90 trendline top.....
Bot or not, profit is the name of the game!
Quoting fxtyrant
U know whats even more amazing?? Ive been bearish and i keep telling ppl here my bias still bearish for as long as we stay below 1.0550/90 trendline top.....
fxtyrant You have a bad money management.I hope you learn from mistakes.
Quoting Tim_isoara
fxtyrant You have a bad money management.I hope you learn from mistakes.
Lol, nice welcome back i got from you.... Buddy, the account you see on my profile is a demo i use to test out my strategy..... Besides im not trading audusd on it....

I do however have short audusd at 1.0446 on my live account, about to take profit soon

Please spare me the negativity.
Besides u were one of those shouting for 1.06 like the rest of the ppl here....
Bot or not, profit is the name of the game!
Quoting fxtyrant
Lol, nice welcome back i got from you.... Buddy, the account you see on my profile is a demo i use to test out my strategy..... Besides im not trading audusd on it....

I do however have short audusd at 1.0446 on my live account, about to take profit soon

Please spare me the negativity.
Besides u were one of those shouting for 1.06 like the rest of the ppl here....
GL And now positive for you. I hope you learn from mistakes.
Quoting Tim_isoara
GL And now positive for you. I hope you learn from mistakes.
Dont we all??
Bot or not, profit is the name of the game!
forcasting

C:UserssamiDocumentsforcasting2012-11-30_0757.png
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Quoting knightpips
forcasting

C:UserssamiDocumentsforcasting2012-11-30_0757.png
And thats when ppl start calling us audusd bears crazy for calling 0.98 regions.....
Bot or not, profit is the name of the game!
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