No Brainer Trades

Quoting max pips

That is very useful information, and as usual incredibly simple. Thanks

and the pizza?

Max

Quoting jtdt777

Here is an example of a bounce of the TL which is countertrend. Probably good for 20-40 pips on the first bounce. I use the J16 method and wouldn't have touched this one until 9 bars later when the OB appeared.

Do you have another entry method on countertrend that you use? Like 1,2,3 or EWT? My success ratio is very poor on these countertrend moves and I would like to increase the percentage.

Quoting ciscoguy

USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco[/quote

Good evening all.

Bloomberg is also talking about high oil, gold demand, weak dollar - all supporting strong CAD.

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Lets just make it official so we can keep track of this stuff. First entry at the lower level, and a push higher at the .95 range. That is if it goes past the 3rd tier of resistance to begin with.

Quoting BillyRayValentine

yum...kiwi

kiwi is in one disasterous fall right now, and though I definately see what you're saying Ironman, I'm actually waiting for a good sell around .7730 to .7750. Just not seeing a lot of historical s/r at the current level, although it may work out. .7730 is stronger short term, but .7750 seems stronger longer term. I would say def. at .7750.

one more thing (not drawn here but you can do it yourself) around .7734 to 37 you have a .50 retracement of the last major wave. big stuff all around here, so we'll see how it goes.

So here we go:

Sell NZD/USD .7730 -.7750, ideally closer to .7750

again to rehash my strategy I might want to put on a part of the position at .7730 area, and the rest or more at .7750.....this is what I do atleast so I dont miss out if it doesnt want to crawl any higher

Quoting max pips

Great thread billy ray. Even , a very cool name. Billy Ray Valentine gives hope to many of us bums and beggars on the streets!!

This all combines really well with the J16 analysis but offers something a littel different. What you will have difficulty with is keeping this post 'clean'. If you or others are thinking too much, clearly it is not a no brainer trade.

Very enjoyable
thanks
MAx

Quoting ciscoguy

Yep. It's going to drop. Just be CERTAIN to either close the position at .9950 or close partial and move the SL to break even, or lock in some more profits. There is a lot of Bull pressure showing on he 4H chart on recent swing lows. Honestly, once this one breaks down to .9973, I'll move my SL to 1.007, or just above the latest swing high into the area of dynamic S/R. This is a short term play. I expect this pair to make a double bottom this swing and deteriorate the 1H bearish trend.


C


Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine

+43 pips max right now.

this actually nailed .7750 and shot down again, trying to analyze how long it will last

thx for the heads up on the pair ironman.
I had this executed on Friday afternoon at .7737, but closed it for only +6 pips as I didnt want to hold it for the weekend due to Friday's nutty action, fearing a higher open today. Got a chance to reenter .7746 after spread tonight feeling more comfortable seeing the open. Take partial $ at +40. I'll try to keep 'em coming. thx all

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Thanks. You're the first person to point out my namesake . Great movie!

Winthorp can stick it.

I agree with keeping the posts 'clean'. That's the target. I'll keep butting in to try to do so.

Quoting ciscoguy

EURCAD - Short upon 4H close below 1.5534. SL 1.5608 TP: 1.5440

Be very careful that you have a confirmation for this trade. If it does not CLOSE below 1.5534 on the 4H candle, forget it. It COULD break out LONG. if it does not close below the recommended level, I'll sit this one out.

If it does drop, I'll be looking for the price to break 1.5400. If it breaks that level, the next stop is WAY down. 1.5200 - 1.5180 looks like the next level of significant support. i had to go all the way to the 1W timeframe to find it. Good money if she breaks down below 1.5400!

Quoting jtdt777

Here is an example of a bounce of the TL which is countertrend. Probably good for 20-40 pips on the first bounce. I use the J16 method and wouldn't have touched this one until 9 bars later when the OB appeared.

Do you have another entry method on countertrend that you use? Like 1,2,3 or EWT? My success ratio is very poor on these countertrend moves and I would like to increase the percentage.

Quoting Iron-man

Just thought I would throw this out there for anyone new to trading. You may look at some of these trades and say, "Well how is it that some of these trades are good for 20,30 or 40 pips or so and then they turn back and others run 150+." Here again, the answer is not too complicated. Bearing in mind there is an exception to every rule.

Bounces off S&R in favor of the previous trend tend to give up more pips. (Not that 20-40 pips is a bad trade) Otherwise the trade is a counter trend trade and the only time they payoff big is when you catch a top or a bottom. And btw, should you be fortunate enough to do that on a trade just be thankful and move on. Accept it as the luck it was. Here's why I say that. If you pick your favorite currency and zoom back through the data some Friday or Saturday afternoon, the moves that jump off the screen are the big ones. What NEVER jumps off the screen are the false breakouts. So what happens is we analyze that breakout or big reversal and (God Forbid) we add indicators until we have the perfect predictor for that particular move. So the next time we think we see that set up through our rose-colored-indicator-Warren-Buffet-eat-my-shorts-time-to-order-the-Mercedes-whirly bird machine, we go all in and lose big. Ask me how I know.

So when the bounce is against the trend I take my 20-40 pips and wait for the next set up (which sometimes is the exact same trade again) and if it's with the trend.... well I might still take my 20-40 pips (no one ever went broke taking a profit) but I am willing to accept more risk, such as, taking half off and moving my stop to break even, or maybe building a bigger position. Stuff like that.

I hope this helps and as always, Billy Ray, please feel free to add your thoughts.

Quoting The Fxorce

BRV great thread!
While you're at it why not include the trendline bounces that move price intraday and from daily charts? This is how we trade high percentage setups. We look for an ABC pattern to be playing out near the TL (trendline) or S/R (support resistance). We feel patterns move the market more than S/R. Do not trade 30 minutes before or after news. Only take the first touch of a 15minute TL if you miss it just stay out there are 10 a day. Stay in the trade until the 5minute stochastic moves to the opposite side for intraday moves and high percentage scalps. Losses come after this happens on the break of S/R so move stoploss to breakeven and take half off.

We've been trying to put together a skype group that trades like this. Btw we also play breaks of S/R which are not as high percentage but once you've traded them for a while you know which ones can move. Breakouts are much more subjective. With bounces you know within 20 pips where price is going to reverse. With breakouts you might get a false move beyond a TL and a spike back into the range.
Friday's moves should not scare anyone away. This happens every couple months or so. The market ran on a rumor and we had big option expirations Friday. A group with self serving objectives started a rumor about Bloomberg State Employment surveys showing 151k jobs lost in April which is much worse than the 21k reported loss and would put the USA in a definable recession. It's a shame when these fools make statements because it scares people out of the market and makes for high volatility. If you want to be ahead of these moves or at least know what's going on use Ransquawk or trade the news. Ransquawk is free from their site with a 30 second delay which is all we need to tech trading because we shut down 30 minutes before and after news. Trade the news text is $40/month and very handy to have a history of what has happened.
Good thread, Bro.

Quoting ciscoguy

USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Just curious what's your methodology/strategy for entering? How does it work? Just trying to figure it out...thanks!

Quoting BillyRayValentine

CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.

Quoting BillyRayValentine

CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.