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The -25- method

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  • Post# 1
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  • First Post: Sep 30, 2006 11:37am
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Hello all.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

I’m starting this new thread to show my system. I have been trading stocks for 2 years, and have now started to trade currencies. I am always learning, and still have to learn a lot. I post this because people can test the system, give advice, and also I can perhaps help people. This system may provide some ideas. This system may be modified by anyone, but please share what you modified. English is not my primary language, so please don’t blame me for any mistakes.<o></o>

<o></o>

(I am not responsible for any loss anyone makes with this system)<o></o>

Ok let’s get started. This is how it works:<o></o>

First set up the proper chart for this system. Take a chart of the GBP/USD with an one hour interval. I would not take a shorter time frame, this leads to more whipsaws. Personally I use only GBP/USD. However, it can be used on other currencies. In my opinion GBP/USD is best.<o></o>

Next, plot a 10 period EMA, a 25 period EMA, and a 50 period EMA. <o></o>

<o></o>

These are the rules:<o></o>

-Go long when EMA10 rises above EMA25 and EMA 50 consecutively.<o></o>

-Go short when EMA 10 falls beneath EMA25 and EMA 50 consecutively.<o></o>

<o></o>

Now the exit. To determine the take profit, we must do some simple technical analysis by hand. <o></o>

If you are long, take 2 of the last tops, and look at the maximum move beneath those tops.<o></o>

If you are short, take 2 of the last bottoms, and look at the maximum move above those bottoms. Now calculate the difference between that maximum move and the trend line you have. Then project this at the level where the EMA10 crossed the EMA25.<o></o>

This part of the system is very similar to Mouteki rules. Therefore, any honour for this part of the system goes to Moutekitrader, and not to me. It is not my intention to steal systems. I use these exit rules because they are crucial for the system. <o></o>

<o></o>

That is one possibility to exit the trade. However, sometimes the target is not being reached. Always sell your positions when EMA10 crosses EMA25 in the opposite position of your trade. <o></o>

<o></o>

This system doesn’t get every pip. EMA’s are lagging indicators. My intention is to make a good profit, not to scalp out every PIP.<o></o>

<o></o>

As attachment I have an example of a trade, and a chart with the profit in pips. The blue line is the profit if you sell each time when EMA10 crosses under EMA25 only! The pink line is the profit if you sell each time using the rules said: at take profit projection, and sometimes EMA 10/25 cross if that occurs before the projection target has been reached. This shows several things, 1. the system is profitable, 2. using the projection technique is better than just selling if EMA crosses… The number you see left on the chart is the profit in PIPs. There were 55 trades from 1 march till now.

Having said all, I hope there will be a good discussion. <o></o>

Bye!

PS Sorry for the bad quality of the pictures, I will post some better ones soon.
Attached Images
  • Post# 2
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  • Sep 30, 2006 12:45pm
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Here is the latest signal. There was a target of 100 pips. Eventually GBP/USD got even lower. As i said, the systems makes a good profit, but doesn't take all.

I'm waiting for the next signal!

Reactions are very welcome.
Attached Image
  • Post# 3
  • Quote
  • Sep 30, 2006 1:14pm
  • fxvision
    Joined Apr 2005 | 406 Posts | Status: Lifetime Forex Student
Good stuff. Any particular strategies you use for stops / trailing stops? Do you take every cross or do you look to the daily / weekly charts for overall trend direction?
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • Post# 4
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  • Sep 30, 2006 1:29pm
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Hello fxvision,

i use a 50 PIP stop on all these trades. I do not look at other timeframes. I take every cross.
  • Post# 5
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  • Oct 1, 2006 6:23am
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Hmm not many reactions.

If anyone has any question or remark, please say.
  • Post# 6
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 6:47am
  • Igor_market
    Joined Sep 2006 | 19 Posts | Status: Member
I rarely use moving averages, but it's very interesting to make some investigations.

Every action on market has to follow drum rhythm of the day: 24 hours.

So try to use
not 10 but 12 (24/2),
not 25 but 24,
not 50 but 48 (24*2) moving averages. And not Exponentian but Simple.

Just creative, I haven't check results.
  • Post# 7
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 7:38am
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Hello Igor,

in my opinion using Simple MA instead of Exponential MA leads to more whipsaws, which is bad for the result. In EMA later days are more important than older days.

12, 24, 48 is not a bad idea at all.

I don't have the software to backtest it myself.

Perhaps someone here can test it for us?
Thanks in advance.
  • Post# 8
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 9:04am
  • jest1081
    Joined Sep 2006 | 2,291 Posts | Status: Chasing Skirts
Instead of trading crosses, try to use the 55 as trendline (which will ultimately decide if u should be long or short) and 25ema as resistance line...looks like if trend is down the price bars rebounce back from the ema25 with much conviction...truthfully i've given up with ema crosses.
Just Friggin Trade
  • Post# 9
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  • Oct 1, 2006 12:13pm
  • rojam
    Joined Apr 2006 | 28 Posts | Status: Member
please add a EMA 62 to your EMA 48 to create a river.Stay in the trade for as long as the riverbanks are apart.It will keep you in the trade during news time and other whipsaws.When the riverbanks flip sides then you are in a new trend.Your system has potential.I would also check H4 using the same settings.It helps to confirm direction.
  • Post# 10
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 12:53pm
  • philmcgrew
    Joined May 2005 | 1,287 Posts | Status: I am not your bro
Quoting -25-
Hmm not many reactions.

If anyone has any question or remark, please say.
I'll ask the obvious question: Can you provide at least a years worth of backtested results for everyone to reveiw?
  • Post# 11
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 1:00pm
  • twinchell
    Joined Apr 2006 | 540 Posts | Status: Ousted Member
Quoting philmcgrew
I'll ask the obvious question: Can you provide at least a years worth of backtested results for everyone to reveiw?
It's only obvious to some people my friend. Very few in reality.
  • Post# 12
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 1:10pm
  • edward77
    Infractions Overload | 91 Posts | Joined May 2006
LOL... Another moving average system
  • Post# 13
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  • Oct 1, 2006 1:19pm
  • twoblink
    Joined May 2006 | 809 Posts | Status: Member
I'm of the 'Whatever works, use it" group; so as far as theft of a method; I think people just want to be given credit where credit is due.

Take Profit however, is a strange creature..

If you are going to "cut your losses and let your profits run" then shouldn't you never "take profit" until you get an exit signal? The question is more rhetorical than directed at you...
google: "Trend and Trendfans"
  • Post# 14
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 1:37pm
  • Mr Trend
    Joined Apr 2006 | 1,404 Posts | Status: Mmmm pips.
Quoting twoblink
If you are going to "cut your losses and let your profits run" then shouldn't you never "take profit" until you get an exit signal? The question is more rhetorical than directed at you...
Theoritically, yes. But then, what is an exit signal? A cross? Minor S&R, major S&R? The cat pees in the corner of the living room, you exit, when he pees in the opposite side, you enter? :
Mr. Trend
  • Post# 15
  • Quote
  • Oct 1, 2006 2:41pm
  • twinchell
    Joined Apr 2006 | 540 Posts | Status: Ousted Member
Quoting Mr Trend
Theoritically, yes. But then, what is an exit signal? A cross? Minor S&R, major S&R? The cat pees in the corner of the living room, you exit, when he pees in the opposite side, you enter? :
That could be, but the cat shitting would defeat the system. It is, however, worth further investigation in my opinion.
  • Post# 16
  • Quote
  • Oct 2, 2006 4:23am
  • twoblink
    Joined May 2006 | 809 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting Mr Trend
Theoritically, yes. But then, what is an exit signal? A cross? Minor S&R, major S&R? The cat pees in the corner of the living room, you exit, when he pees in the opposite side, you enter? :
Depends... do you have a cat?? ;-)

Yes, it's a difficult creature..
google: "Trend and Trendfans"
  • Post# 17
  • Quote
  • Oct 2, 2006 5:10am
  • learningtheropes
    Joined Aug 2006 | 191 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting twoblink
I'm of the 'Whatever works, use it" group; so as far as theft of a method; I think people just want to be given credit where credit is due.
Yup, this is just a Parabolic SAR away from MuddBuddha's method.:
  • Post# 18
  • Quote
  • Oct 2, 2006 7:26am
  • fingotrader
    Joined Jan 2006 | 101 Posts | Status: Go for it...
Hi Aha,

thanks for sharing your system, I will try it out for a test also on other pairs.

I have a question: When do you excactly take the trade? , when the candle close in the 1 hr period or the same moment the EMA 10 penetrates the other EMA's (or the last of the 2).?

Thanks in advance,

FT

Quoting -25-
Hello all.<o></o>


These are the rules:<o></o>

-Go long when EMA10 rises above EMA25 and EMA 50 consecutively.<o></o>

.
  • Post# 19
  • Quote
  • Oct 2, 2006 12:11pm
  • -25-
    Joined Jul 2006 | 36 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting fingotrader
Hi Aha,

thanks for sharing your system, I will try it out for a test also on other pairs.

I have a question: When do you excactly take the trade? , when the candle close in the 1 hr period or the same moment the EMA 10 penetrates the other EMA's (or the last of the 2).?

Thanks in advance,

FT
Hmm you say ''hi aha'', but i think you mean my with that, since it was me who posted this system.

OK you take the trade the first candle after the EMA 10 has crosses the EMA 25 on the one hour chart.

Btw if you test it, please share the results
  • Post# 20
  • Quote
  • Oct 2, 2006 12:52pm
  • fingotrader
    Joined Jan 2006 | 101 Posts | Status: Go for it...
Hi 25,

thank you very much, I will test it and get back, I will choose the 4 majors to test it. Hehe sorry abt aha, but have just read a post by him seconds before posting to you

Happy trading,

FT

Quoting -25-
Hmm you say ''hi aha'', but i think you mean my with that, since it was me who posted this system.

OK you take the trade the first candle after the EMA 10 has crosses the EMA 25 on the one hour chart.

Btw if you test it, please share the results
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