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Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

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  • Post# 41
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 7:35pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting spike101
That Pinbar back to the 1991 low is amazing. Eerie actually.
This is the pin bar spike 101 is talking about
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  • Post# 42
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 7:47pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
2007 5 Daily Daily Range For GbpJpy is 120 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GbpJpy is 141 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GbpJpy is 139 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GbpJpy is 191pips
Daily Range For GbpJpy for all of 2007 is 202 pips
Daily Range For Gbp Jpy for this time in 2006 161 pips
Daily Range For GbpJpy for all of 2006 was 142
  • Post# 43
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 8:00pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Strategy from Fxcm sell at 1.9770
dailies are quite oversold but selling rallies is still
preferred. The double top on the hourlies is at 1.9775 and this is the logical
place to enter the market. Longer term Fibo support at 1.9565 is now being
bolstered by a daily trend line and bulls should look to enter the market
here. Play edges of these ranges. (SL) [23:13 GMT]
end

This is thought from fxcm not necessarily my preference.
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  • Post# 44
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 8:02pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
[23:22 GBP/USD: Steady After Softening House Price Data] Sydney May 21. The Rightmove House Price Index rose 0.4% in May, 13.1% on the year, the slowest rise this year, which suggests that the recent rate rises are having an impact, easing the pressure on interest rates. The Cable trades at the base of a very tight 1.9743/56 range, with offers building at 1.9775/80 and bids at 1.9700/10, with stops below. We expect these orders to contain the Cable in Asia, which trades 1.9742/45. Andrew.M.Spencer@thomson.com Quote From Fxcm
[
  • Post# 45
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 8:22pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
EurJpy normally ranges around 30 to 50 pips before a break out.
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  • Post# 46
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 8:26pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Reaching highs not seen since Oct of 92
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  • Post# 47
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 8:53pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
2007 5 Day Daily Range For UsdJpy is 59 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For UsdJpy is 60 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For UsdJpy is 66 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For UsdJpy is 90 pips
Daily Range For UsdJpy for all of 2007 is 89 pips
Daily Range For UsdJpy for this time in 2006 106 pips
Daily Range For UsdJpy for all of 2006 was 94
  • Post# 48
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 9:18pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and turquoise numbers are pivot points based on previous days high, low, and close.



The following are S&R statistics that can be used as a guide of when to exit trades based on the daily range average
Since Jan of 2007 EurJpy touches with in 10 pips of the S1 or R1 87% of the time
Since Jan of 2007 EurJpy touches with in 10 pips of the S2 or R2 39 % of the time Since Jan of 2007

EurJpy touches with in 10 pips of the S3 or R3 18% of the time
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  • Post# 49
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 9:37pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
S & R for GbpJpy on 4hr chart
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  • Post# 50
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 9:47pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
These ranges date back to the first trading day of this year (2007)

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the GbpUsd . All times are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 33 pips
10pm-2am 30 pips

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the EurJpy . All times are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 51 pips
10pm-2am 40 pips

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the GbpJpy . All times are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 83 pips
10pm-2am 66 pips
  • Post# 51
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 9:52pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Lots of numbers here but with in a week or two I will post the stats in a more orderly fashion with a table of contents to help find which posts have daily range, weekly range, hourly ranges, fib retracements, supports, resistance and pivots, as well as charts of significance.
  • Post# 52
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 10:17pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Daily S & R
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  • Post# 53
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2007 11:20pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
4Hr Candle/Bar Ranges


Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the below currencies. All times are US eastern.
GbpUsd EurJpy GbpJpy UsdCad UsdJpy
33 pips 51 pips 83 pips 16 pips 38 pips 6pm-10pm
30 pips 40 pips 66 pips 15 pips 29 pips 10pm-2am
69 pips 55 pips 97 pips 31 pips 38 pips 2am-6am
65 pips 52 pips 95 pips 42 pips 44 pips 6am-10am
52 pips 46 pips 77 pips 35 pips 40 pips 10am-2pm
27 pip 30 pips 51 pips 21 pips 23 pips 2pm-6pm
  • Post# 54
  • Quote
  • May 21, 2007 1:43am
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Daily range for EurUsd this time last year was 91 pips it ended the year with an average 92 pips for the daily range. Currently the daily range for 2007 is 73 pips.

2007 5 Daily Daily Range For EurUsd is 74 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For EurUsd is 66 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For EurUsd is 66 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For EurUsd is 71 pips
  • Post# 55
  • Quote
  • May 21, 2007 7:03am
  • megamo
    Joined Sep 2006 | 164 Posts | Status: BengalTrader
Hi goodthings, great job at the statistical analysis.. I find your studies very helpful, by far one of the most helpful tips were the gbp crossing the 70 pip level..
Anyhow, in regards to fibs, I was wondering how you are drawing it to determine the 23.6 fib level? Are you putting your fib cursor at the low or the high of the day and then going backwards in time to the beginning of that day? I guess a more proper way of asking would be, whether you are going forward in time or backward in time when drawing your fibs I guess since whether you start at the low or the high depends on whether the market closed lower or higher at the end of the session.. Thanks
  • Post# 56
  • Quote
  • May 21, 2007 8:57pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting megamo
Hi goodthings, great job at the statistical analysis.. I find your studies very helpful, by far one of the most helpful tips were the gbp crossing the 70 pip level..
Anyhow, in regards to fibs, I was wondering how you are drawing it to determine the 23.6 fib level? Are you putting your fib cursor at the low or the high of the day and then going backwards in time to the beginning of that day? I guess a more proper way of asking would be, whether you are going forward in time or backward in time when drawing your fibs I guess since whether you start at the low or the high depends on whether the market closed lower or higher at the end of the session.. Thanks
The daily fibs are the green numbers and since it closed lower then the open the fib lines are drawn from top to bottom for the down trend. When it closes higher then the open then the fib lines are drawn from bottom to up for an up trend.
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  • Post# 57
  • Quote
  • May 22, 2007 8:06pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
The daily range for GbpUsd the last 19 days ending last week.
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  • Post# 58
  • Quote
  • May 22, 2007 10:16pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
The chart shows the weekly average range (WAR) comparison between this time in 2006 blue line which had a (WAR) of 318 and year ending of 318 and 2007 red line which has a (WAR) to date of 267.

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  • Post# 59
  • Quote
  • May 22, 2007 10:24pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
A week by week look at the (WAR) for 2007 the pink line compared to the over all (WAR) for 2007 blue line.
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  • Post# 60
  • Quote
  • May 22, 2007 10:26pm
  • goodthings
    Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member
A comment with previous post is that 6 of the last weeks have been below the 2007 over all (WAR)
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