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US NFP Preview
US Non-Farm Payrolls is perhaps one of the most watched economic data release in the global financial market. It comes out on the first Friday of every month. Interestingly, this time the release (on 06-Apr-2007, at 1230 GMT or 0830 EST) falls on “Good Friday”, when most parts of the world are closed. This is likely to result in thin liquidity. Hence, due to lack of liquidity, the chances of a large move are extremely high. The last time the US NFP was declared on a Good Friday was on Apr 02, 1999. On that day, payrolls were reported up 46,000 compared with forecasts for a gain of 150,000. This time around, the US NFP are expected to come in at 125K. This is more or less inline with the US ADP Nonfarm Employment change, which has come in at 106K on 03-Apr. The CME Derivative auction figures also point out to the US NFP figure of around 120K – 130K, with the latest auction figures being 121.6K (as of 1315 GMT 05-Apr). There could be a big move if there is a large deviation from the expected figures. A number of above 150-155K could result in a EUR-USD move below 1.3320, while a NFP Figure below 100K could result in a EUR-USD move above 1.3450, with moves on both sides exaggerated by low liquidity. OR, it could also be that there won’t be any movement at all! For a historical chart on NFP, please click on [URL]http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/usnfp.shtml[/URL] [FONT=Times New Roman][FONT=Verdana]Trade Wise, Trade Well![/FONT] [/FONT]