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USD/CAD

  • Post# 781
  • Quote
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:09pm | Edited Nov 4, 2011 12:22am – typo
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting HandsFx
Although it looks very bearish.. But I still expect it will break the high today targeting 1.03 and above..
I bought UC as deep as I could ... @ 1.0069 ... catching the falling knife ... they said ... (Can u pls show me yr projection in chart ? Im afraid I couldn't see that 1.03 , coz ... Im shorting it starting from 1.0219 ... and your projection made me shiveringgg ... , it might override my shortssss ...! thanks ! ... however ... Im secured with +1,064 pips in U/C right now ...)
Quoting VennD
I bought UC as deep as I could ... @ 1.0069 ... catching the falling knife ... they said ... (Can u pls show me yr projection in chart ? Im afraid I couldn't see that 1.03 , coz ... Im shorting it starting from 1.0219 ... and your projection made me shiveringgg ... , it might override my shortssss ...! thanks ! ... however ... Im secured with +1,064 pips right now ...)
For this scenario, I use calculation instead of chart..
223+(0.3*(223-54)) = 273
223+(0.5*(223-54)) = 307

But this only valid if the support yesterday at 54 is not broken.. Actually I expect the last up before correction of this pair happen yesterday, but it didn't..

Now what cause my doubt is the volatility that Euro create, it cause all the pair swing up and down very fast.. Yesterday Euro cut interest rate and yet eurusd only drop a while and it rally up and usdcad moving down.. The market getting strange..
  • Post# 783
  • Quote
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:58pm | Edited Nov 4, 2011 12:10am – typo / change chart
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting HandsFx
For this scenario, I use calculation instead of chart..
223+(0.3*(223-54)) = 273
223+(0.5*(223-54)) = 307

But this only valid if the support yesterday at 54 is not broken.. Actually I expect the last up before correction of this pair happen yesterday, but it didn't..

Now what cause my doubt is the volatility that Euro create, it cause all the pair swing up and down very fast.. Yesterday Euro cut interest rate and yet eurusd only drop a while and it rally up and usdcad moving down.. The market getting strange..
ah well ! ... ok then ... i should look more inside the higher tfs ... this is my 15m chart. I hv closed most in the middle, earlier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad15m_05.gif Size: 44 KB
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
atm ...

US SPX 500 ... UP, and US data are favouring USD. Currently ... U/C is facing previous supports became resistances 1.0120-1.0090.

Closing all scalpers now... Leave those top and bottom,... which one will be over-rided by market.

Greece drops referendum ... make-ups !

CAD data in 5.5hrs might be trilled ... projected by consensus to favour USD. In "confluence" with HandsFX's technical projection .... , going to recheck my tech ...
Hi Vennd,

From my Technical point of view:
1. Currently its stopped by EMA 40 1.0120 (EMA 40 usually strong and harder to break)
2. Second resistance at 1.0130-1.0140 (if break above this, then it will be the base line support for it to go up higher)
3. If break number 2, it should easily go to 1.0180-1.0190
4. If break number 3 then 1.0200-1.0220 will be the last strong resistance
5. After that it will fly up easily..

If keep fail break the ema 40, then it could be drop below support yesterday.. I will try post chart when I back home later..

What's your view on NFP tonight, will it boost up usd? (usdcad, usdjpy up) and eurusd down?
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting HandsFx
Hi Vennd,

From my Technical point of view:
1. Currently its stopped by EMA 40 1.0120 (EMA 40 usually strong and harder to break)
2. Second resistance at 1.0130-1.0140 (if break above this, then it will be the base line support for it to go up higher)
3. If break number 2, it should easily go to 1.0180-1.0190
4. If break number 3 then 1.0200-1.0220 will be the last strong resistance
5. After that it will fly up easily..

If keep fail break the ema 40, then it could be drop below support yesterday.. I will try post chart when I back home later.....
ok ! thanks for that tech analysis. I will try to spot where to start hitting it up and down ...

NFP ... consensus says ... fcking down, man ! ... They say ... CAD down ... USD down ... so who is going up ? ... Small Retailers ... like us

Don't hope UJ will go down lower than 75.40 , BOJ will smack yr face if u try that . That're EU & UJ charts ... I helped BOJ to intervene and later they allow me to short it (kidding).
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy4h_01.gif Size: 31 KB Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4h_01.gif Size: 38 KB
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Tracking USD Index 15m / 1H / 4H.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdix15m_04.gif Size: 31 KB Click to Enlarge Name: usdix1h_09.gif Size: 34 KB Click to Enlarge Name: usdix4h_08.gif Size: 38 KB
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting VennD
1-2hrs to US data

23hrs to CAD data

CAD might be in trouble in both data.
usd/cad ...
Canada lost 54k payroll in October and Unemployment Rate rises ...
Net Change in Employment / +60.90k <> +20.0k ---> -54.0k
Unemployment Rate / 7.1% <> 7.1% ---> 7.3%

long U/C @ 1.0105 , 110 + 115 earlier , due to technical reasons (in 15m tf confluences) ...

Awaiting US Unemployment Rate and several other data to be released in 30mins ...

eur/chf ...
Also , I helped SNB to intervene again , (in 1H + 4H confluences) ... long eur/chf @ 1.2134 + 135 ... and short @ 1.2241 to lock one of the profit (+107 pips) , let the other one runs wherever SNB choose to ...
  • Yuchen
    Joined Aug 2009
wow, cad data was so bad !!! i opened my account and just see my sell limit for AUD/CAD at 1.0580 and sell limit for EUR/CAD at 1.4100 are both triggered.
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting Yuchen
wow, cad data was so bad !!! i opened my account and just see my sell limit for AUD/CAD at 1.0580 and sell limit for EUR/CAD at 1.4100 are both triggered.
Probably u will win ... next CAD data of moderate votalities are good. Look at AU spikes ... 65 pips !

Next US data might be a mix of good and ... la la la ...
Quoting HandsFx
Hi Vennd,

From my Technical point of view:
1. Currently its stopped by EMA 40 1.0120 (EMA 40 usually strong and harder to break)
2. Second resistance at 1.0130-1.0140 (if break above this, then it will be the base line support for it to go up higher)
3. If break number 2, it should easily go to 1.0180-1.0190
4. If break number 3 then 1.0200-1.0220 will be the last strong resistance
5. After that it will fly up easily..

If keep fail break the ema 40, then it could be drop below support yesterday.. I will try post chart when I back home later.....
It unable to break point 3 after multiple tries.. Although I believe it should go higher, but I cleared out at 1.0180-1.0190 to reduce risk and enjoy better weekend and wait next entry.. Trade with care..
Quoting HandsFx
It unable to break point 3 after multiple tries.. Although I believe it should go higher, but I cleared out at 1.0180-1.0190 to reduce risk and enjoy better weekend and wait next entry.. Trade with care..
I will consider to go long again if break 1.0200-1.0220 convincingly
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting HandsFx
It unable to break point 3 after multiple tries.. Although I believe it should go higher, but I cleared out at 1.0180-1.0190 to reduce risk and enjoy better weekend and wait next entry.. Trade with care..
Both ... CAD and USD has several high votalities data today . I shoot both directions.. wt da heck ?
  • Yuchen
    Joined Aug 2009
Quoting VennD
Probably u will win ... next CAD data of moderate votalities are good. Look at AU spikes ... 65 pips !

Next US data might be a mix of good and ... la la la ...
i see.. let's see how it will go!! I just know that AUD/CAD is almost at its range high and there is also a slightly MACD divergence on daily chart, i am still waiting for USD/CAD drop to 0.9700
Quoting Yuchen
i am still waiting for USD/CAD drop to 0.9700
yes, me too. Went short at 1.01878
  • Yuchen
    Joined Aug 2009
Quoting fibbonix
yes, me too. Went short at 1.01878
i see. i decide to trade one way now.. so i am not going to short USD/CAD but will only buy on dip and i think your short is not bad, just need to be careful have s/l above 1.0230-40 cause if it breaks 1.0220 it may up aggressively.
  • Post# 797
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:12am | Edited Nov 5, 2011 5:59am – typo
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
Quoting Yuchen
i see.. let's see how it will go!! I just know that AUD/CAD is almost at its range high and there is also a slightly MACD divergence on daily chart, i am still waiting for USD/CAD drop to 0.9700
I hope so ... anything can happen ... it might not drop down there anymore ...

Why ? Because ur waiting there ...
  • Yuchen
    Joined Aug 2009
Quoting VennD
I hope so ... anything can happen ... it might not drop down there anymore ...

Why ? Because ur waiting there ...
yeah, i have an aggressive plan.. if it drop to there i will long 0.1 lot USD/CAD with no s/l, if my account blow because of that (then USD/CAD need to drop below 0.7) and then i will go to bank change all my family's Canadian dollars into US dollars then buy a hotel in US to manage it.
  • Post# 799
  • Quote
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:44am | Edited Nov 5, 2011 5:58am – typo
  • VennD
    Joined Oct 2007
How to go up ? Both hv bad data. NFP ... No Good !

I can only see consolidation (30m tf) since Nov 2nd.

(sign off)
  • Yuchen
    Joined Aug 2009
closed my shorts for AUD/CAD and EUR/CAD, wait for another chance to sell on high, will see how USD/CAD moves after the data (will release in 10 mins)
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