High/Low of fixed period (four hours before Tokyo Open) with open/close lines.
Nice work Halpalkos,
I trade the box plays for early entries into my intraday strategies however I always keep an eye on the movement of price that has developed within the box, fundamentals for the day and Daily Range.
Looking at todays session, the price made a 100 pips gain from the close of the NY session Friday prior to any breakout. So a break of the box to the upside gives limited profit potential. The downside of the box is also 100 pips of range. Being that the average is approx 130 for the GBP/USD and we have already moved 100 pips with 105 - 110 for a breakout there is limited profit potential with limited fundamentals for the rest of the day.
A breakout of the box when price has already broken the previous high by 60 pips during the Asian session usually has limited profitability.
Some fo the rules I use for the breakout are price needs to be within previous H/L and has moved less than 60 pips within the box.
My target zones are normally 60 - 100 pips away from the breakout so the remaining average daily range needs to be able to reach the targets.
You have presented some rules above:
1. Daily Range for GBPUSD is about 130 pips and therefore, to attain maximum profitability, box should not be more than 60 pips (or perhaps, half of the daily ATR?) And I assume that the Limit would be the other half of the Range?
I use this to set a max profit target for the breakout. So my Limit would be whats left in the Average Daily Range for the day.
2. box should be within the H/L of the previous day; I dont seem to understand this rule; is it to assume that you want to trade only when there is a retrace/consolidation?
If the box high forms outside the previous days high I consider how much movement may be left and if it's worth the trade. from my experience most of the time 80 pips is the most movement your get from a high or low of the previous day. So if the box high forms 30 pips outside the previous days high may be best to sit on the sidelines.
3. In Post #6 of this thread, it appears that your box starts at 19:00 EST and ends at 5:00 EST; seems like a very long box; from my observation, GBPUSD doesnt move much during Asia sessions, it either moves during the London Session OR NY Session - seldom both.
The box I use starts at the NY close to the Europe open and takes the high and low in this period. I would take the London open breakout for the trade.
Putting these RULES together, you seldom get to trade GBPUSD; you only get to trade this pair when it is quiet in Asia and London Sessions (or movement is limited to 60 pips). And you only trade this if the box is within the Previous H/L...
Mostly the box falls within the Previous H/L but when it does form outside then I consider by how much and what range is left in the day. I don't need to be in the trade. If I don't think there is enough range left for a good target or the price has already made a good move above a previous H/L then I won't take a trade.
I assume that your last trades for GBPUSD could have been last Feb 6 or perhaps last Feb 2 and Feb 1? These are when the box is within 60 pips or so... BTW those were winners all. But Jan 29 was a looser.
1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 9th, 13th and 14th were trades in Feb.
I also trade only with 50 period trend, CCI.
Other BOX systems play NY Session (aparsai's PipBoxer) but having short boxes (15 to 30 minutes long)... Another box (flexbox) seems like a pure "breakout" strategy based on a consolidation regardless of session time. Halpalkos seems to suggest monitoring a 30 minutes before London Session and this apparently play the London + NY session (up to 12:00PM EST)..
Need more time and info to digest all these....Ignored
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...demonstrating that i have no life outside Forex...
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