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Confirming Trendline breaks, chart patterns and other breakouts.

  • Post# 1
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  • First Post: Dec 9, 2008 9:45pm
  • nikolaou
    Joined Apr 2008 | 137 Posts | Status: your mom
i am wondering if you guys have any good way to confirm the breakout of a trendline, chartpattern, or s&r.

i trade the 5&1min eurusd with trendlines chartpatterns and S&R and typically what i use to confirm is i will buy when the next bar AFTER the break out bar goes 1 pip above the high of the break out bar.

do you guys have any other ways to confirm?

thanks
  • Post# 2
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  • Dec 10, 2008 7:23am
  • nikolaou
    Joined Apr 2008 | 137 Posts | Status: your mom
no help?
  • Post# 3
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  • Last Post: Dec 10, 2008 7:39am | Edited at 8:20am
  • birdt
    Joined Jul 2007 | 905 Posts | Status: Member
Personally I try to pre-empt the breakout so I would attempt to get in on the bounce from support or resistance preceding the run to the support or resistance area that price is expected to break out from. As for trading the actual breakout, personally I do not think making a trade on the break represents good value. Frequently price will 'fake you out' as price overruns the level, only for it to retrace back within the pattern. One way of overcoming this is to wait for price to retrace, leaving a 'Ross Hook' and then trade the breakout of this level. Or, if price retraces back to retest the support/resistance then you may be able to enter before the break of the Hook using any one of a number of entry methods. For me, breakouts represent the area when most newbs are likely to get sucked into trades as they respond to price moving quickly and fall over themselves to get positions into the market. As a general rule, the newbs are the group of traders that you do not want to emulate. Better to get in early, studying the price action and analysing whether a level is likely to break, or wait until after the breakout has occurred and then the market truly shows it's hand. It is not about chasing every move in the market but stalking the higher probability few that fit your criteria.
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