Image 1: Setup prior to news release
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic1.gif
Full extent of spike a few seconds later (nowhere near enough time for me to make a rational decision based on the figures)
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic3.gif
Spread widens to 20 pips - can't even think about getting in here
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic4.gif
Price starts to fall back to pre release position - my perfect opportunity to get in
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic7.gif
I dither and then go and screw it up completely.
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic8.gif
CONCLUSION
There were a few opportunities to trade in the first 5 minutes, but the incredible reactions required and the spread-widening make it impossible. In my view, the best opportunity was to trade the market's reaction to the news, either going long on the breakout of the news spike, or going short on the retrace. In the event, I dithered and then accidentally traded in the wrong directions.
As they say, practice makes perfect.
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic1.gif
Full extent of spike a few seconds later (nowhere near enough time for me to make a rational decision based on the figures)
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic3.gif
Spread widens to 20 pips - can't even think about getting in here
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic4.gif
Price starts to fall back to pre release position - my perfect opportunity to get in
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic7.gif
I dither and then go and screw it up completely.
http://www.nicktodd.com/UKretailsales/pic8.gif
CONCLUSION
There were a few opportunities to trade in the first 5 minutes, but the incredible reactions required and the spread-widening make it impossible. In my view, the best opportunity was to trade the market's reaction to the news, either going long on the breakout of the news spike, or going short on the retrace. In the event, I dithered and then accidentally traded in the wrong directions.
As they say, practice makes perfect.