hi guys, I have a fund test running on the strategy below:
i) I only open position size=account size, so less fear of market random jumps +-20pips.
ii) once I guess a direction of market next move, I set take/profit at +100 or +200 pips, stop/loss at -100 or -200 pips, or reverse. risk per trade is 2% of acc size
iii) I use economic fundamentals (trend from stocks index), news/data, plus TA support/resistance
to make a compound judgment of higher likelyhood direction, either 100 pips north, or south, if all 3 point to same direction I will jump in
iv) also use 12, 21, 55 MA cross to decide entry to the market (usually MA cross means market waiting for direction)
v) never hold position over-night or to the next big news, stock or S/R, so generally position open is a few hours and less impacted by uncertainty
I am still testing this strategy. the profit model is
if I guess 2 time each month on high likelyhood market moves,
win 16 and loss 8 per year, each time win 100pips or 1% ROI
then average ROI is 8% per year, which is way good enough compared to a bearish stock market.
spread of 1-4 pips in comparison is an ignorable trading cost.
biggest problem I see recently is after news,
usually trend move the reverse way nearly 100 pips, then heading reverse toward the predicted direction
as a result, many times -100 pips s/l is not safe enough,
maybe -200 pips s/l is good enough, but less news are likely to move the market to hit the +200 pips t/p,
so I am still hesitating whether to use +200/-200 instead.
they say trading forex is kind of random market walk, but I am thinking that we can find some >50% guess correct oppotunities if we research hard enough.
and the benefit of this strategy is, non of the market-makers tricks like high spread or slippage or stop-hunting or roll-over fees can affect you much,
because I am holding a position = acc size and look for +/- 100pips movement...
seems for newbie it's basically impossible to have account blown up if strictly follow stop/loss and don't change it when guess is wrong.
afterall, the strategy is counting on guess right a little more than 50% of the time. 1 time right or wrong really is not a big concern.
I was getting 4% ROI in past 3 weeks, I will continue run it through the year to test. Kindly share your opinions on how this system could work.
i) I only open position size=account size, so less fear of market random jumps +-20pips.
ii) once I guess a direction of market next move, I set take/profit at +100 or +200 pips, stop/loss at -100 or -200 pips, or reverse. risk per trade is 2% of acc size
iii) I use economic fundamentals (trend from stocks index), news/data, plus TA support/resistance
to make a compound judgment of higher likelyhood direction, either 100 pips north, or south, if all 3 point to same direction I will jump in
iv) also use 12, 21, 55 MA cross to decide entry to the market (usually MA cross means market waiting for direction)
v) never hold position over-night or to the next big news, stock or S/R, so generally position open is a few hours and less impacted by uncertainty
I am still testing this strategy. the profit model is
if I guess 2 time each month on high likelyhood market moves,
win 16 and loss 8 per year, each time win 100pips or 1% ROI
then average ROI is 8% per year, which is way good enough compared to a bearish stock market.
spread of 1-4 pips in comparison is an ignorable trading cost.
biggest problem I see recently is after news,
usually trend move the reverse way nearly 100 pips, then heading reverse toward the predicted direction
as a result, many times -100 pips s/l is not safe enough,
maybe -200 pips s/l is good enough, but less news are likely to move the market to hit the +200 pips t/p,
so I am still hesitating whether to use +200/-200 instead.
they say trading forex is kind of random market walk, but I am thinking that we can find some >50% guess correct oppotunities if we research hard enough.
and the benefit of this strategy is, non of the market-makers tricks like high spread or slippage or stop-hunting or roll-over fees can affect you much,
because I am holding a position = acc size and look for +/- 100pips movement...
seems for newbie it's basically impossible to have account blown up if strictly follow stop/loss and don't change it when guess is wrong.
afterall, the strategy is counting on guess right a little more than 50% of the time. 1 time right or wrong really is not a big concern.
I was getting 4% ROI in past 3 weeks, I will continue run it through the year to test. Kindly share your opinions on how this system could work.