Disliked{quote} I to agree with a fee points he said but completely disagree on others. I do not think the forex can be predicted because there are to many trading strategies out there be used. Everybody is buying and selling at different times using all sorts of strategies. For example...If a big bank executes a massive buy order on the EU the value of the euro will go up causing the pair as a whole to move upward. Usually this happens on news or 00 levels. This is why we get such large spikes in price because everybody happens to be just buying or just...Ignored
I too, use a method that basically relies on the fact that for the most part, the charts will be in some kind of range. Even if that range is within a trend.
However I found that no EA could correctly apply my logic to the evolving charts. Despite knowing a pretty damned good coder, the logic just doesn't exist for what I look for.
I do believe that the overwhelming majority of the time, the Fx market is a random walk and levy flight. Normal day to day operations create the sideways, until a news event drives a direction. But that direction is not clear.
If it were logical, then perhaps the direction could be predicted, but in truth it's not.
Also, the way in which institutions behave is worlds apart from what retail traders think.
I think this is the biggest hurdle in learning to trade consistently. Most people simply don't understand how the biggest players on the field go about their business.
Hence, retail traders are overwhelmingly poorly positioned in their trades.
I've posted this elsewhere a few times, but think it can never be overplayed.
Inserted Video
At around 4minutes in, the (as he states oversimplified) scenario is a fantastic example of what drives the markets in reality. So many people scratch their heads at whipsaw events, but this is a great example of why in most cases, this happens.
It also should highlight why in most cases, a run on any currency is not in anyone's interests day to day, and is the logic behind my methods. Seems like yours too.
For me, indicators, custom or otherwise are next to useless for their textbook applications. I do use some indicators in scalping lower frames, but certainly not in the way they were intended!
I don't believe that TA works in the long term, seeing how traditional TA concepts are the most widely used in a business where 90%+ people lose money overall, it's a pretty safe assumption. You can curve fit indicators to any scenario, but when the scenario changes, the results appear as red in the account balance.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn