Here’s an idea I had toyed with back in the day, trading the GBP/USD. I brought it back out of my old notebook after seeing the NY session breakout strategy. While this performed brilliantly back in the day, it may have just been luck. It has not been back tested, and can certainly can be changed to implemented more intelligently. But for fun, I’m going to stick with my very cryptic rules and see what happens. Why not?!
Disclaimer: This is NOT a proven system. Do NOT place real money on this. I am a bored trader that is looking satisfy the gambling side of my personality. I will simply be testing this for fun.
KEEP IN MIND – THIS COULD FAIL MISERABLY
Ok… Rules:
1. Look at the News Calendar. If no significant news exists for the US between 8-10 am est, then set a box on 8-8:30.
2. If there is news at 8:30 and nothing significant after, set the box at 8-9:00.
3. At 10… Set the box 10-10:30
4. One other note… I don’t like mornings with no news, so I cut the lots to five and try to scalp 5 pips. That’s all… no volatility is too risky for this type of trade. If scalping 5 pips for you with the large stop loss is too risky, you are probably smarter than me. We’ll see how it does.
*Basically, we start the session at 8:00. After the last significant news item of the morning, we want to give it a half hour to settle down and relax.
At this point, place 10 lots (or 10 units – do your own money management) at the break of the box. Set your TP’s (take profit) at 5, 10, 15, and 20 away from box breakout price. At 1 hour past the breakout time, take profit on 1 more lot, leaving 5 lots open. Eg. If your breakout box was 8-10:30, but a trade wasn’t triggered till 11:15… take profit at around 12:15 (or whatever works for your schedule)… but about an hour.
*If at an hours time, the price has retreated back to within the box, let the trade run until it either hits your stop loss, or it closes outside of the box and you can take profit on one more lot, and set your remaining five to breakeven.
Set the remaining 5 lots to breakeven… (Stop loss at the price you bought or sold at.) Let the trade ride. I will explain what I was doing with these when the time comes that we catch a trend.
Stop loss… 50 or the other side of the box +10… whatever is GREATER.
I know, I know… This doesn’t help us determine expectancy or risk/reward. I’m just going to experiment with this and see what I find out and learn. And like I said, I’m bored.
So as I probably did a crappy job explaining, I will go through the previous week and explain what would have happened everyday if we were already testing this strategy. If you are interested, I suggest you follow along to better understand what I am doing.
9/8 – No significant news… Set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7585 – 1.7655… Broke in three bars (M30) and went long to 1.7667.
Results… +25, on the scalp. As you can see, this WAS risky, as it broke short quickly there after.
9/9 – Pending home sales at 10:00… Set the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7570 – 1.7637… Broke the next bar and went to take profit at 5, 10, 15, and 20. The bar one hour later closed at 1.7661, so that’s an additional 20 pips (taking into account the 4 pip spread). Moved stop to breakeven and we were stopped out on the five remaining lots a few hours later.
Results… +70
9/10 – No significant news… Set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7551 – 1.7592… Broke in two bars (M30) and went long to 1.7622.
Results… +25, on the scalp. As you can see, this WAS risky AGAIN, as it broke short quickly there after.
9/11 – Trade Balance at 8:30… Set the box at 8-9:00 --- 1.7527 – 1.7588… Broke short in less than hour. We took profit at 5, 10, 15, and 20, but the price retreated back to within the box. This is an instance when you are going to wait and see if your remaining lots will be stopped out or if you can grab some more profit. Soooo… The next M30 block did in fact close below the box at 1.7501 and we were able to book an additional 22 pips and set the remaining lots to breakeven. These lots would be stopped out later in the afternoon.
Results… +72
9/12 – UofM Consumer Sent. (last news of the morning)… Set the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7651 – 1.7815… Broke long within the next half hour. Booked 5, 10, 15, 20 and when the bar closed an hour later at 1.7920, an additional 101. Right now, the remaining five lots are at a breakeven stop. THIS is when this system can get interesting. We can be getting lucky now and catching a trend, or we may get stopped out right away next week. I will update you how I handle the “runners” if we in fact, get lucky and the pound keeps heading north.
Results… +151
*So for the week, we booked 343 pips… or $343 if you are using mini-lots. That may not be enough for the risk involved. That depends on your bank account.
I look forward to updating this experiment daily. If I have to travel, I will do the best I can.
Disclaimer: This is NOT a proven system. Do NOT place real money on this. I am a bored trader that is looking satisfy the gambling side of my personality. I will simply be testing this for fun.
KEEP IN MIND – THIS COULD FAIL MISERABLY
Ok… Rules:
1. Look at the News Calendar. If no significant news exists for the US between 8-10 am est, then set a box on 8-8:30.
2. If there is news at 8:30 and nothing significant after, set the box at 8-9:00.
3. At 10… Set the box 10-10:30
4. One other note… I don’t like mornings with no news, so I cut the lots to five and try to scalp 5 pips. That’s all… no volatility is too risky for this type of trade. If scalping 5 pips for you with the large stop loss is too risky, you are probably smarter than me. We’ll see how it does.
*Basically, we start the session at 8:00. After the last significant news item of the morning, we want to give it a half hour to settle down and relax.
At this point, place 10 lots (or 10 units – do your own money management) at the break of the box. Set your TP’s (take profit) at 5, 10, 15, and 20 away from box breakout price. At 1 hour past the breakout time, take profit on 1 more lot, leaving 5 lots open. Eg. If your breakout box was 8-10:30, but a trade wasn’t triggered till 11:15… take profit at around 12:15 (or whatever works for your schedule)… but about an hour.
*If at an hours time, the price has retreated back to within the box, let the trade run until it either hits your stop loss, or it closes outside of the box and you can take profit on one more lot, and set your remaining five to breakeven.
Set the remaining 5 lots to breakeven… (Stop loss at the price you bought or sold at.) Let the trade ride. I will explain what I was doing with these when the time comes that we catch a trend.
Stop loss… 50 or the other side of the box +10… whatever is GREATER.
I know, I know… This doesn’t help us determine expectancy or risk/reward. I’m just going to experiment with this and see what I find out and learn. And like I said, I’m bored.
So as I probably did a crappy job explaining, I will go through the previous week and explain what would have happened everyday if we were already testing this strategy. If you are interested, I suggest you follow along to better understand what I am doing.
9/8 – No significant news… Set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7585 – 1.7655… Broke in three bars (M30) and went long to 1.7667.
Results… +25, on the scalp. As you can see, this WAS risky, as it broke short quickly there after.
9/9 – Pending home sales at 10:00… Set the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7570 – 1.7637… Broke the next bar and went to take profit at 5, 10, 15, and 20. The bar one hour later closed at 1.7661, so that’s an additional 20 pips (taking into account the 4 pip spread). Moved stop to breakeven and we were stopped out on the five remaining lots a few hours later.
Results… +70
9/10 – No significant news… Set the box at 8-8:30 ---1.7551 – 1.7592… Broke in two bars (M30) and went long to 1.7622.
Results… +25, on the scalp. As you can see, this WAS risky AGAIN, as it broke short quickly there after.
9/11 – Trade Balance at 8:30… Set the box at 8-9:00 --- 1.7527 – 1.7588… Broke short in less than hour. We took profit at 5, 10, 15, and 20, but the price retreated back to within the box. This is an instance when you are going to wait and see if your remaining lots will be stopped out or if you can grab some more profit. Soooo… The next M30 block did in fact close below the box at 1.7501 and we were able to book an additional 22 pips and set the remaining lots to breakeven. These lots would be stopped out later in the afternoon.
Results… +72
9/12 – UofM Consumer Sent. (last news of the morning)… Set the box at 8-10:30 --- 1.7651 – 1.7815… Broke long within the next half hour. Booked 5, 10, 15, 20 and when the bar closed an hour later at 1.7920, an additional 101. Right now, the remaining five lots are at a breakeven stop. THIS is when this system can get interesting. We can be getting lucky now and catching a trend, or we may get stopped out right away next week. I will update you how I handle the “runners” if we in fact, get lucky and the pound keeps heading north.
Results… +151
*So for the week, we booked 343 pips… or $343 if you are using mini-lots. That may not be enough for the risk involved. That depends on your bank account.
I look forward to updating this experiment daily. If I have to travel, I will do the best I can.