Disliked{quote} I have EU going for 1.2, UJ 103, gold 15xx... What fundamental reasoning could lie behind such movements?Ignored
On the fundamental side: It looks very hard in the next few weeks to unlock those levels.
- We will need FED "confirming" hikes next year (v. hard)
- We need Greece clearing the field with high notes and clearing any extra problems for the rest of the year (v. hard)
- We need a complete collapse of the US macro numbers (hard)
- A huge boost and clear recovery in Europe including strong numbers in the periphery (medium chance)
- A massive turn around in the next couple of months in China (medium hard)
- Japan stop easing and start picking up for real. (hard)
- ECB delimiting and marking a clear map for the end of QE (very hard)
On the technical side: Difficult. ITs still lock but we are in top/bottom area of the locks
- Monthly charts are in strong trends and in trendy mode (strong to deny your levels)
- Weekly charts didn't made reversals (only pullbacks) in the last swings in March (very strong to deny your levels)
- Daily charts/Intraday are aligned and trending to those levels but they need the key break to unlock the map you are mentioning (if we isolate these charts from the major swings charts there is a positive medium to high chance to break to the levels you mentioned).
- Too many macro players and portfolios are still heavily positioned to the opposite side (hard as steal to deny your levels ... if market catch them with their pants down, the spike will be fast and furious and will open your levels in a blink)
In conclusion, hard both fundamentally and technically...for starters we will need the proper M/W rolls this week to give a hand to that scenario ...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now