Hi Dunstan,
What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?
What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?
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DislikedHi Dunstan, What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?Ignored
DislikedHi dunstan, yes I agree there are more important factors to consider than just the vote.. However when positioning is very one sided i makes me nervous. you mentioned about the commercials capitulating, can they do that? I Thought they were always hedgers, but that doesn't entirely make sense to meIgnored
Disliked... Commercial Capitulation, let me quote what they said about it: Commercials hedge the most when they believe that the actual price is very favorable for them to hedge their future production. While they have an information advantage, they still cannot know the future. Sometimes, major shifts occur, that forces Commercials to unwind their hedge positions. Since they generally have deep pockets, their stress barrier is high, but not absolute. As the losses grow to critical levels on their trading accounts, they have to liquidate: buy back short...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi verv, I understand why it seems to be illogical, but occasionally it does happen. In post42 I wrote a bit about this phenomenon, I advise you to read it. Essentially what happens to these Commercials is that they start getting margin calls, they have to liquidate their open short positions. All the best, DunstanIgnored
Disliked{quote} Hi verv, I understand why it seems to be illogical, but occasionally it does happen. In post42 I wrote a bit about this phenomenon, I advise you to read it. Essentially what happens to these Commercials is that they start getting margin calls, they have to liquidate their open short positions. All the best, DunstanIgnored
Disliked{quote} Dustan, I use COT also ... looking at EUR, GBP (and other currencies traded against the USD), we see the USD is highly short by commercials, and highly long by funds. If you look at this in either net positions or % of OI, it is the same. So generally when this occurs, a reversal is near. Reading what you posted above ... the trend can still continue for a long time (I've seen this as well). When you notice this (trend continuing, but extreme levels, and commercials starting to capitulate), do you look at OI levels? I was wondering if you...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hey Dunstan, looking at coffee and sugar, both look very interesting, seems more downside may be coming in both, but sooner or later...... Would like to see some analysis on those 2 if you don't mind.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi Dunstan, in that chart on post 42 I see that as the commercials capitulated the specs started closing their positions too. Any idea why? The specs and the commercials seem to do the exact opposite of one another at all time.Ignored
DislikedHi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C 26%, LS 19%, SS 15% / In my last post, Ive wrote that we have a relatively good buying opportunity nothing special, but its there. Things have not changed so far, we still see the cot report supporting a bullish move in this market. Lean Hogs COT Extreme / C 149, LS 150 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is very well seeable , so I neednt explain too much As you can see, the last few weeks we could witness a bit...Ignored