Previous: 90K
Estimate: 125K
ADP: 158K
What are the possible results and outcome?
NFP will come out better than 125K and USD rallies.
NFP will come out between 90K and 125K; based on historic charts, some eople trying to beat the spike will short the USD (as they think thought the number is below estimate), while cooler heads will buy USD (as they think the number is above previous). Whipsaw will occur.
However, last July, ADP conditioned traders for a big NFP number and when NFP came out lower than the ADP estimate but higher than previous, USD was shorted. Will we see something like this come friday?
What if the previous 90K was revised upward? will that be a cause to BUY USD? Based on last 2 NFP's upward revision ruled the day.
What if there is a revision downward?
The market is gearing for a strong number but FED warned us to expect 100K jobs for the next few more months to come.
Is the market indeed conditioned for a strong or weak NFP? Based on the price, its still neutral - we are back to before ADP was released.
We have to plan our NFP trade day as early as possible. I am looking for the following scenarios:
1. Upward Revision, NFP >125K = BUY USD
2. Upward Revision, NFP < 125K, NFP>90K = Buy USD
3. Upward Revision, NFP < 90K = Whipsaw
4. No Revision, NFP > 125K = BUY USD
5. No Revision, NFP > 100K, NFP < 125K = Whipsaw, Buy USD
6. No Revision, NFP < 100K = Short USD
7. Downward Revision, NFP > 125K = Neutral
8. Downward Revision, NFP > 100K = Short USD
9. Downward Revision, NFP < 90K = SHORT USD
I personally like to see #1 and #9 come out this friday.
Watch for Revision. Remember, Revision has x2 effect to the current number. A +50K revision is about +100K added to the current number. A -50K would be like -100K to the current number.
Estimate: 125K
ADP: 158K
What are the possible results and outcome?
NFP will come out better than 125K and USD rallies.
NFP will come out between 90K and 125K; based on historic charts, some eople trying to beat the spike will short the USD (as they think thought the number is below estimate), while cooler heads will buy USD (as they think the number is above previous). Whipsaw will occur.
However, last July, ADP conditioned traders for a big NFP number and when NFP came out lower than the ADP estimate but higher than previous, USD was shorted. Will we see something like this come friday?
What if the previous 90K was revised upward? will that be a cause to BUY USD? Based on last 2 NFP's upward revision ruled the day.
What if there is a revision downward?
The market is gearing for a strong number but FED warned us to expect 100K jobs for the next few more months to come.
Is the market indeed conditioned for a strong or weak NFP? Based on the price, its still neutral - we are back to before ADP was released.
We have to plan our NFP trade day as early as possible. I am looking for the following scenarios:
1. Upward Revision, NFP >125K = BUY USD
2. Upward Revision, NFP < 125K, NFP>90K = Buy USD
3. Upward Revision, NFP < 90K = Whipsaw
4. No Revision, NFP > 125K = BUY USD
5. No Revision, NFP > 100K, NFP < 125K = Whipsaw, Buy USD
6. No Revision, NFP < 100K = Short USD
7. Downward Revision, NFP > 125K = Neutral
8. Downward Revision, NFP > 100K = Short USD
9. Downward Revision, NFP < 90K = SHORT USD
I personally like to see #1 and #9 come out this friday.
Watch for Revision. Remember, Revision has x2 effect to the current number. A +50K revision is about +100K added to the current number. A -50K would be like -100K to the current number.