DislikedA box of 7 bars on M30 is used to represent price swing and further various types of boxes is used to represent life cycle of a trend swing.Ignored
DislikedIt is very interested to see usage of scientific method to study swing trend in forex. If price can be qualified by statistics, statistical inference, etc scientific method theory, then, trading can be bit of easy.Ignored
DislikedTrading is based on speculation of price movement, greedy, fear, manipulation, etc. Speculation will often not follow statistics, etc scientific way.
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Price move are all based on speculation, manipulation, etc, Probability etc concepts are not accuracy.Ignored
I disagree because the issue is about finding solid edges, which are really hard to find but doable. These edges have to survive and stay strong on rainy days, sunny days and stormy days; all kinds of market conditions. I used to take the view you are taking now, that the market is purely speculative, hence is both unpredictable and does not follow statistics. 95% of all the statistics I work on failed. Meaning they could not show a reasonable probability to justify its use. I could had given up but I didn't. Perhaps 4% had some potential and about 1% survived.
Yet despite of a seemingly chaotic random speculative market, there are a few things that price does 99-95% of the time when it happens. And these happen regularly. It took me years to find just one single price behavior; price has to retrace a certain % at given extremes, like a vacuum, which is explained in this thread. The rest, is history after finding this one single glimmer of actual hope.
I do agree because it is so hard to find something that happens 95%-99% of the time in the market. Plus probability alone is not accurate enough. You can look further into iDoubleStoch's writings and you might understand this better.
He mentions that to properly measure and trade the market, we need to create indicators that has the following properties;
Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability
(http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7757702)
DislikedOf course, in-sample data or macro format, etc. can be used to build the models, and out-sample ones can be used to test the model. Then, the model is used to forecast next swing cycle or each phase of swing cycle.
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Price move or trend has the cycle. It is hard to spot the cycle of a swing.Ignored
Or perhaps what you meant by 'spot', that a better word for what you are trying to say is 'anticipate'. If this is the case, no, by in no full means I totally anticipate the next cycle of a swing. My work is much more of a 'defensive responsive' type of trading. That IMO is the hallmark of excellent trading; where should my optimal stop loss be at any given time? Risk like this needs to be taken care of first before considering profits, what more a better way to use statistics to assist us?
e.g.
1-when a swing is in down retracement state
2-and you are long
3-if a particular level is broken
4-its better to take the loss and try to go short instead
My friend LG explains this much better in his blog post :
https://lgtrades.wordpress.com/2015/...-summary-2015/
DislikedIn news, george soros long cable before UK vote, he lost huge due to fast drop of pound? Huge swing often seem somebody got huge loss? 1700 pips drop, killed all soros account if he has no hedge.Ignored