Well, with pretty much everyone but the US getting deeper in the QE/loose money business, I have to guess the USD is due for more strengthening. And I might have to bet that will nip the commod (oil n gold) rallies in the bud. So I am looking at gold n oil trades...
I see somebody got in this wide diag spread on XLE on Friday (x1,000). Looks like a bet that oil price will fall back in the next month but perhaps stage a rally into the Spring. A reasonable expectation based on seasonality. Not so sure about that rally, though. But the trade profits well if XLE goes to $89.50 at expiry (max P=$1.22) and is safe between $82 and $92, downside losses below b/e are small. Death slide on the upside, you'd have to be on guard against moves above $90.
I'll be watching this one for better entries and also look for cheaper debit, easier margin use...if the first spread worked out you could be set up well for subsequent time spreads.
I see somebody got in this wide diag spread on XLE on Friday (x1,000). Looks like a bet that oil price will fall back in the next month but perhaps stage a rally into the Spring. A reasonable expectation based on seasonality. Not so sure about that rally, though. But the trade profits well if XLE goes to $89.50 at expiry (max P=$1.22) and is safe between $82 and $92, downside losses below b/e are small. Death slide on the upside, you'd have to be on guard against moves above $90.
I'll be watching this one for better entries and also look for cheaper debit, easier margin use...if the first spread worked out you could be set up well for subsequent time spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake