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vsa with Malcolm

Quoting jacktrader1
Right. Now i see where my problem is. The shape and everything is ok, except it appears on a increasing volume even though it is still low. Great help! HiddenGap and intel! Thanks
These seb vidoes you are talking about, there are only 5 of them by Seb from traders lab right? Just want to make sure i get the right materials.
Quoting jacktrader1
These seb vidoes you are talking about, there are only 5 of them by Seb from traders lab right? Just want to make sure i get the right materials.
Off hand, I am not sure to tell you the thruth. That sounds about right tho.

Also check out his stuff on Elite trader. He has some really detailed charts there
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Quoting sweatx
I thought the ND or NS would be the 2nd low volume bar after the high volume bar, in the diagram it looks like yours is the 3rd bar. I may be wrong, if so I had an incorrect assumption myself.
The ND / NS rule about volume and 2 bars has nothing to do with the high volume bars specifically.

A ND is a narrow spread upbar closing off it's high on volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart.

A NS is a narrow spread downbar closing off it's low on volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart.

Again it is volume less than the previous 2 bars on the chart and has nothing to do with their proximity and how long they print after a high volume bar.

5 min EU chart from today shows examples of each. I have removed all other volume from the chart to hopefully make this very clear. See how the bars I have marked match the criteria I note above perfectly.
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Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting sweatx
I thought the ND or NS would be the 2nd low volume bar after the high volume bar, in the diagram it looks like yours is the 3rd bar. I may be wrong, if so I had an incorrect assumption myself.
I think you may be confusing the definition of a ND with the NDs which have been shown on some chart setups.

A ND is a ND where ever it appears. The ones you may have seen us talking about where we say it must be within 2 bars of the UT, are for a SPECIFIC SETUP only. For some other setups, the ND should appear somewhere quite different.

ND = narrow spread up bar closing off the high on volume less than the previous 2 bars.

Concentrate on that definition. Then go to your charts and see how many you can find. Do this for the last week on M5. You will soon learn to spot them.

Once you can see them as they appear, you can start to make a judgement call about whether they tell you something about the price or not. Some will, some wont (but, they will still all be NDs).


You should use this recognition process for all of the various bars in VSA. Only once you can recognise them all without even trying, will you be at the stage where you can start looking for an entry requirement.


With all that said, this is the most important aspect to mastering VSA:-

Knowing how to spot the various bars is only a small part of VSA. The most important part is knowing what they all mean and how to use them to spot SMs intentions.
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.

2. Friday was a down bar on very high volume that closed off its low. This is Demand Swamping Supply (DDS). When strength appears, it usually appears on a down bar. Simply put, the Smart Money was buying on this bar.

3. Today (Monday 24th Christmas eve), we have a narrow range down bar on volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Supply (NS). The BBs are not interested in lower prices. Don't be fooled by the "low pre-holiday volume". The BBs are ever present. The low volume reflects their disinterest in the down side, not their absence.

When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price..

Deteriorating news on the FC may well result in a Shake Out. This will be a wide spread bar closing on or near the high on Ultra High Volume. Despite the bad news, or because of it, this will be bullish. Expect higher prices to follow.
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WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.
1. Price is in an Up Trend.
2... Smart Money was buying on this bar.
3... The BBs are ever present. The low volume reflects their disinterest in the down side, not their absence.
When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price..
Deteriorating news on the FC may well result in a Shake Out. This will be a wide spread bar closing on or near the high on Ultra High Volume. Despite the bad news, or because of it, this will be bullish. Expect higher prices to follow.
Good stuff.. that thread is a joke.. 10% act like they are in the know & the rest are bottom/top pickers..



ATR for the last week of December to the 1st week of January since 2008 had been a whooping 550 pips..
This year, we are dealing with a M/T bull market gyrating to a "Fiscal Cliff Hanger".. with bears salivating over the recent PA, I wouldn't be surprise to see another 300 pip weekly up-thrust from this 3 month Supply zone turn Demand to re-print the February year high 1.3468~88..

EURUSD D1+W1 overlay @12212012
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EURUSD D1 @12072012
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EURUSD D1 @11182012
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Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.

2. Friday was a down bar on very high volume that closed off its low. This is Demand Swamping Supply (DDS). When strength appears, it usually appears on a down bar. Simply put, the Smart Money was buying on this bar.

3. Today (Monday 24th Christmas eve), we have a narrow range...
HG,

Thanks for the post and insights. I must say however that when looking at my daily chart and even your daily chart I don't see the same thing you do.

Due to time differences my Monday bar closed as a ND since it closed as an upbar but the lowest volume in forever is the same and IMHO the bar print no matter whether an upbar as on my chart or a downbar as on you chart we see as much lack of topside interest as we do no supply or no selling pressure.

This bar opens on it's low and makes a weak journey upward on no volume and ends up closing very close to where it opened the day. This for me shows lack of demand and lack of buyers and as such the market ended the day on the lows where we started. Today we are seeing another low volume day and another weak upbar day. Yes we have made a higher high than Monday and the close should be telling. I do agree that there was demand on the Friday bar but this is expected as we dipped down into that 3170ish resistance level from the September high. We've already seen some support / demand at this level as we approached on December 14th and then printed an effort bar on the 17th. We never really tested this level properlly after the breakthrough on the 18th and as such we have returned to do so and as noted did see some demand had built some protection at this level. No follow through and weak bar prints are for me showing lack of SM in heading back up at this time.

Thursday and Friday should help clear things up a bit more to show further was SM are planning to do.

On the hourly chart today we saw the highest volume of the day print on a wide range upbar right into that important 3250 level. Dependant on the close today I am expecting a possible trade set-up around LO into the 3230ish level for a short targetting a return back to 3100. This is a strong bear target from both the 1hr and Daily charts. We could well still see a continued upmove this week as everyone gets back to work however for me I see more weakness than strength at this moment. 3180-3160 support below has been tough thus far though and will need to be taken out and tested if 3100 is truly in the cards.

Will evaluate again come the end of day.
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Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting HiddenGap
If you are talking about Seb's videos on Trader's Lab, these are a must watch. He certainly does a better job than a coin toss (50/50). If you really want to learn VSA, I recommend you do the exercise yourself. Replay your data one interval at a time and try to determine the direction of the next interval. You will quickly find out a few things:
Not sure which videos I watched. I think that was it. Good point. Yea, I can see I can learn a lot here. As for the ND bars, I see what your saying. A no demand doesn't have to be the second bar from the highest on volume. Still, finding these ND and NS bars looks like it is a challenge especially if the exact definition is not exact. Thanks! Very informative.
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it......

When trading resumes on Wednesday, we should see a rally in price...
To be honest, I was expecting a more sustained rally. Nevertheless, we did rally and close higher.

Inserted Video


WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Guys I must say you re incredible. I learneg a lot from...just readin and implementing VSA into trades.
Now I'm watchnih GU around 1.6150...think strength is all around. I followed 1min chart. High volume up bar at resistance, after that retrace with falling volume.
Quoting HiddenGap
To be honest, I was expecting a more sustained rally. Nevertheless, we did rally and close higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-kfmuGHtxo

No luck you were right , the rally continues. This is one strong EU bull . I guess those last two daily ND's were polar bears in Hawaii.
Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting HiddenGap
I posted this in the Euro thread.

(Basically, I am looking for the next bar to be up.)

Post Holiday cheer leads to a rise in the Euro. Really? Well, no. But that's how the uniformed will characterize it.

Those who know better will say:

1. Price is in an Up Trend.
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?
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Quoting pres78
Dependant on the close today I am expecting a possible trade set-up around LO into the 3230ish level for a short targetting a return back to 3100. This is a strong bear target from both the 1hr and Daily charts. We could well still see a continued upmove this week as everyone gets back to work however for me I see more weakness than strength at this moment. 3180-3160 support below has been tough thus far though and will need to be taken out and tested if 3100 is truly in the cards.

Will evaluate again come the end of day.
Well it didn't come at LO but I finally got that SOW into 3230. Nice Hourly ND rising above but closing below this level. I went short at 3218 looking first for 3200 and then that 3180-3160 support zone. Seeing some support at the low of that 1 hour zone from today (3209) as it expected. There was some big volume on that bar and we did close a bit off the low but we did push down and close below that 3230 zone low so some demand on the push was also expected. We will see whether or not today's zone is a bull or bear zone but for now I still feel overall the weakness is still in control.

Accross the board on other pairs such as GBPUSD and UCDCAD we are seeing USD strength present.
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Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting Scipio
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?
The question was for me, but don't let that stop anybody else that wants to take a stab at it.

(yes, Pres, I am talking to you. I am very interestind in what you have to say about these intervals)
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Quoting Scipio
Hi HG, i want to show you my chart of today, 5 min EU. Could you please explain if the two bars are weak or strong?

Thank you for the question and welcome.

There is so much going on here, I don't know where to start.

I am going to start by saying, the trend is down. I don't know what that MA is exactly, but it is red and price is basically below it. I interpret that to mean the trend is down. In a down trend we want to pay much more attention to the signs of weakness, not the signs of strength.

Okay, let's take a look at the chart.

1. The first thing to note is that I have marked the interval prior to 1 as 1'. To fully understand this interval we need to first look at the interval that preceded it. 1' is a wide spread down bar on very high volume that closed on its low. This is an effort to Fall and could be seen as a sign of weakness. However, the next interval (1) is up. This means there had to be some buying (demand) hidden in all that effort.
The first way to look at 1 is to note that it is a squat. It is a narrow range bar on increasing volume that makes a lower low. This speaks to some strength. But this is not the whole story. Note that the volume on the effort to Fall is pretty high. But we have concluded that there was demand hidden within this interval. We closed on the low, so how much did demand swamp supply? There is one way to find out: TEST.

1 is a Test. It is a Test on Ultra High Volume. There are two ways a test fails, one is the next interval is not up. And two is the volume is too high. Of course this one is not so simple. Whilst the volume is very high, the next interval is up. What we know is in a case like this, the volume will need to be tested again. Hence we see the No Supply interval back into the range of this test bar.

So the strength of 1 can be seen without looking at the prior interval and looking at the price action 3 intervals after it. (keep the 1-3 intervals after idea in your mind).

2. The first thing we note is that this is an up interval on decreasing volume. Bearish volume is increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars (see pg 19 of MTM). But we have to look at the previous interval to get the whole story. 2' is a wide spread up bar on very high volume. It makes a lower low and a higher high than the previous bar. It is both an Outside Key Reversal (OKR) and an effort to rise. Since this interval is an effort to rise, which normally come on very high volume, it is reasonable to expect that the next bar while being up might come on less volume. After all, if volume was greater, we would be getting into the excessive territory pretty quickly.

2 is an up bar giving us result from an effort to raise. This confirms the strength of 2', but does not really say much about 2 itself. There are elements of weakness on this interval like the decreasing volume. Which we have to take in context as previous stated. And the fact that this interval is not really making much progress after the effort to rise. Ultimately, I think this bar is just kind of nebulas.

2 intervals later, and 3 intervals after the Effort to rise, we get the key interval. This is a wide spread down bar on increasing volume that closes on its low. More importantly, it closes lower than both the Effort to rise and the High Volume Test. This is negative action.

Just for fun, I added my 5 min guidetrader chart......
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WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Quoting pres78
Well it didn't come at LO but I finally got that SOW into 3230. Nice Hourly ND rising above but closing below this level. I went short at 3218 looking first for 3200 and then that 3180-3160 support zone. Seeing some support at the low of that 1 hour zone from today (3209) as it expected. There was some big volume on that bar and we did close a bit off the low but we did push down and close below that 3230 zone low so some demand on the push was also expected. We will see whether or not today's zone is a bull or bear zone but for now I still...
Well this trade wasn't mean't to be so I closed out for a small loss on that upbar back into that 3230 level. As I noted that zone low from today's 1hr bar (UHV black volume bar) which is 3209 could well provide some support and by shorting into this unbroken low was a touch more of a risky trade but I was able to re-evaluate the trade after a couple of hours and made the decision to pull the plug on the trade. Will not be looking for anymore trades until tommorow now but I know what levels I will be watching.

As I write this post we are back up and testing the 50% of today's zone which is 3240, not too shy of that 3250 level that has been part of many UHV zones over the past couple of trading weeks.
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Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting pres78
Well this trade wasn't mean't to be so I closed out for a small loss on that upbar back into that 3230 level. As I noted that zone low from today's 1hr bar (UHV black volume bar) which is 3209 could well provide some support and by shorting into this unbroken low was a touch more of a risky trade but I was able to re-evaluate the trade after a couple of hours and made the decision to pull the plug on the trade. Will not be looking for anymore trades until tommorow now but I know what levels I will be watching.

As I write this post we are back...

Looking at your chart, we are moving up on decreasing volume. This is bearish. Soon we need to see either volume increase on these up bars or we need to see a Test.

If we get an up bar where the range is narrow and the volume remains low, this will be our No Demand. And price will probably attempt to head back down to the low of your Zone.

These were more questions than statements. Do you agree?
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.
Quoting HiddenGap
Looking at your chart, we are moving up on decreasing volume. This is bearish. Soon we need to see either volume increase on these up bars or we need to see a Test.

If we get an up bar where the range is narrow and the volume remains low, this will be our No Demand. And price will probably attempt to head back down to the low of your Zone.

These were more questions than statements. Do you agree?
Yes I agree. However as we both know the market can drift a long ways up or down without SM intervention. These afternoon drifts are quite common actually following UHV WRB's. If we find some demand and SM aren't actively buying but also aren't selling then up we drift.

The good thing is today 1 hour zone gives me some great trade locations to watch tommorow.
Never take a trade you don't understand!
Quoting HiddenGap

There is so much going on here, I don't know where to start.
Hi HG thank you for your reply,
first of all i want to apologise because my english is very poor...you always talk about the importance of the backgrownd, then I want to show you the eu-5min chart of yesterday:

1 - During asian session, I see a wide sperad up candle on climatic volume that close slightly off the high, the next candle is up, it makes a HH, not a LL, but its range is very narrow and vol decreased. You have also to note that the previous day high (not shown in this chart) around 1.32531, was not affected. EFFORT WITH NO RESULT Something is changing...

2 - This is a KRB it opens higher the close of the previous candle, it makes a HH and (not VSA) engulfs the body of the previous candle on ultra high volume. Next candle is down. It is a very weak candle.

At this point the market float sideway, this is a bad sign for short, maybe is the market still strong?

3 - Early in the morning another wide spread up candle appears on ultra high vol. The next candle (4) is down, another sign of weakness. The only think that I am slightly worreid about is the lower shadow of the candle 4, that shows some support...

5 - Another wide spread up candle that coloses higher the candle 3 on decreasing volume in regard of 3. Something in the path of last resistance is changing.

6 - For me this was the key bar (and I was wrong): a wide spread down candle that engulfs the boy of 2 previous candle, at this point for me the market is very weak.

Hence, I was looking for a narrow spread up candle showing ND to short te market.

7 - The market tests, the volume is less than the two previous bars but well over the average, for me it is too high to be a healthy test. However the market moves up: test confirmed.

8 - Another KRB it makes a HH in regard of the previous candle, it opens higher then the previous candle open and closes slightly off its low.

9 - No follow through, the market tests again, but again I dont like the volume despite it is less than the previous two candles.

10 - NO JOY - Pushing through supply, despite I was wrong, i was not in the market.


The market shows strength



11 - Wide spread up candle on climatic vol, with the next bar down, some supply hits the market

12 - Wrong candle LOL

12 + 3 - Ok now I know that the market is strong, I had a beautiful pushing through supply and now a narrow bar on decreasing vol (under average), this is a hidden test. One bar later the test is confirmed.

12 + 5 - A wide down candle that closes under the close of the test candle. No result from a test...Sign of weakness

OK now I am a little confused, the market is weak or strong?
The backgrownd is too confused...
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Quoting Scipio

12 + 3 - Ok now I know that the market is strong, I had a beautiful pushing through supply and now a narrow bar on decreasing vol (under average), this is a hidden test. One bar later the test is confirmed.
OK when I look better, this is not a test, it looks like a ND...however I dont like ND wich does not do a HH, and surely after a pushing through supply the marker needS a little rest...I tink this ND is out of place...

In fact the next candle does not confirm ND
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