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Quoting chopstix
I totally agree with you Mr. Pip.

Although this indicator looks good to the untrained eye.
It is a very complex indicator, that may produce many false positives.
Like any indicator one has to thoroughly learn its mechanics, tweak its settings... in order to incorporate it into ones arsenal.
Event then we are still at the mercy of the markets; if we do not have (or trust) our edge.

Regards
Hey Chopstix,

I believe mastery of the markets is possible but it takes hard work and discipline. The problem is not the markets it's us. We over complicate simple processes and that is within us to fix.

Regards,

Mr. Pip
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting Mr. Pip
Yes and no. Please refer to my chart for an explanation. Nothing can be traded blindly we must obey what price is trying to tell us. It will always speak to us and confirm what we are seeing. We trade what we see not what we think. This has also been disqualified as a crab pattern as per my rules of engagement. The BC correction was too deep. I would need to see alternate confluence to have me long at a 161 ext. of XA. This is where a crab would complete.

Regards,
...
Funny that I was watching this very same chart all day until it reached that magic 2.618 . I am a Harmonic lover myself but was in the trade short using a different method. I have always wondered how one can make use of harmonic patterns just like this when price goes right thru the prz area and doesnt reverse? Ive always wondered if one could actually take the reverse trade and stay with the trend especially if its a big engulfing bar that is breaking thru the zone. Why waste the pattern. My thoughts Mr pip is any pattern is either going to go long or short. So if in this case you were "preparing" for a long, Could a short not easily have been ridden right to that same number with a huge R/R? I have to believe with price charging thru the PRZ zone like that, it could easily stand as a system in its own right. I think the only tweaking needed would be money management and making sure the r/r gave you an edge. As I said, if you ran this exact scenario to the PRZ zone 1000 times entering either 1-One pip outside the zone, 2-one or 2 bars past the zone as long as you got 2-1 on your money or better(often much better like 6-1) if you ran this play 1000 times youd be a huge winner end of year. Regardless if Bat,crab,butterfly or Gartley. Do you agree? And if so, have any studies been done on this that are in print somewhere? Feel free to aNSWER ME HERE OR pm ,whatever works best for you.

Also, I would like to say that in my many years on Forex Factory, you have been one of our most shining stars. You answer newbies with patience, and your clarity is quite illuminating. As well.... you have that knack of knowing when it is appropriate to stray off topic and when it is not right to do so for the moderators sake. You are a class act. I hope you are here a long, long time. I have enjoyed every one of your posts. On a very serious note, I think you should start your own chat/trade commentary room and pick your members BY YOUR CHOICE, not the reverse greedy commercial way. I for one would love to participate. Even if it was just an hour per day to answer questions and give the "Setup of the Day". Something small with maybe a dozen guys who each share some responsibility in _______ ?????? Think about it.

happy holiday, S.
Quoting Silat50
Funny that I was watching this very same chart all day until it reached that magic 2.618 . I am a Harmonic lover myself but was in the trade short using a different method. I have always wondered how one can make use of harmonic patterns just like this when price goes right thru the prz area and doesnt reverse? Ive always wondered if one could actually take the reverse trade and stay with the trend especially if its a big engulfing bar that is breaking thru the zone. Why waste the pattern. My thoughts Mr pip is any pattern is either going to go...


Happy Holidays to you and all as well. I thank you for allyour kind thoughts and support. I am humbled and look forward to continuehelping traders grow. I have thought of starting something but fear the topicof harmonics and advance patterns maybe a bit advanced for most and the threadwill not live long. Also, many traders are hooked on indicators and do not understandthe nature of price action.


I do like your idea about a commentary room or somethingalong those lines. I am not a greedy person so yes it would be completely freeas I believe in helping traders grow. PM me with some thoughts on how we canget this going, I would enjoy working on this with you.


Now to the questions at hand, as traders we are alwaystrying to find high probability entries with the least amount of risk possible.Let’s keep in mind that risk will never be eliminated from our trading but ismust be managed accordingly. Harmonics identifies high probability areas wheretrading decision are likely to take place. This is achieved through areas ofconfluence which validates our analysis and places us at or very close toturning points in the markets.


In the private sector there are two main types of traders,retail traders which are those traders that rely on indicators for entries ortraditional pattern traders like head and shoulders, wedges, flags, breakouts.The second group is the wholesale traders. These are the traders that have thebest risk reward ratio and enter the market at the best possible price. Theseare the price action and harmonic groups. You want to aim to be a wholesale trader. This offers the best riskreward bar none and places you into a trade very early not after one third ormore of the move has already taken place.


So, in examining this particular pattern where would be thebest possible wholesale entry? Taking the reverse trade at point D failure andPRZ offers a risky and retail entry. Risky because in this pattern a Gartleypoint D completes the pattern within leg XA so taking the trade here puts youtrading into potential support at X and waiting for a breakout of X leaves youwith an oversold market with much higherrisk verses reward. These two combinations offer a low probability trade. Thereis a much better wholesale entry.


The entry is at point C of the pattern and when price startsto accelerate into the PRZ and we see that price has no intention of stoppingand reversing we disregard the pattern and manage our trade aggressively as wenow know we are holding a short trade in an oversold market. A much betterposition to be in would you agree? I’ll repost the chart with two examples. Thefirst offers your trading the failure short and the second is the harmonicwholesale entry to exploit the pattern to its fullest. Enjoy!


Best Regards,


Mr. Pip
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (60 Min) 12_21_2012 1.jpg Size: 102 KB Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (60 Min) 12_21_2012 2.jpg Size: 107 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Mr.Pip you can always start a thread in Journal on Harmonics where you can discuss freely without feeling constrains of systems.
Regards
"Let winners run and cut losers quickly" a cliche but 100% true
Quoting Davit
Mr.Pip you can always start a thread in Journal on Harmonics where you can discuss freely without feeling constrains of systems.
Regards
Thanks I will consider it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting Mr. Pip
Thanks I will consider it.
I second that. Im in. We really need to give 9er the respect he deserves and keep the discussion on his system. Its just too good to lose.

So starting another thread is not really an option its a must,Its the RIGHT thing to do! The problem is that either a thread is filled with so many newbies asking the same basic questions, which is what you have to expect.Or....you get so many experienced traders that dont just take a system as it is but integrate it with their own methods and indicators and ways of thinking.Thats fine but should only rarely when its earth shattering be posted here. Im sure Davit and Mr Pips agree.

I cant wait to see 9er's first trade of the year. Lets start this year of with a 9er winner!!!! As Austin Powers would say.....nahhh forget it.
Quoting Mr. Pip
Thanks I will consider it.
Mr. Pip, please start a thread as there are sure many who would appreciate sharing your knowledge on wholesale trading.

Risk reward is really great.
Wait-Execute-Manage (:waiting: - the longest part)
Where did Ts go ? will he come back or is this thread over ? I was really enjoing it.


Best regards
Quoting jgadefelth
Where did Ts go ? will he come back or is this thread over ? I was really enjoing it.


Best regards
He will comeback
We're here to learn from each other and make MONEY
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hey Chopstix,

I believe mastery of the markets is possible but it takes hard work and discipline. The problem is not the markets it's us. We over complicate simple processes and that is within us to fix.

Regards,

Mr. Pip
Mr Pip,

What is the reason wew would want any involvement with a system that produces soooomany false positives, where every connect the dots action has to be perfect. Arent there easier ways to make money. Between us, I have found harmonic trading to not produce enough good signals as simply using FIB CLUSTERS with common sense and vision. Your thoughts? And naturally we cant beat what 9er has given us here as well. so why bother with harmonics except as a hobby? Im not being sarcastic, i truly want to know.

Where is 9er? Come back and get us back on track!!!!!

silat
And what makes you believe that 9er will return?

After he was belittled on another thread (I was reading it at that time), he could simply have returned to obscurity and continued to make money without sharing his "style", but did he? No. He chose instead to accept the responsibility of starting/supporting a thread to show others how money could be made his way, with keeping risk in check.

9er has shown numerous charts with his methods, explaining in great detail the how, what and whens. There have been several posts by 9er stating that he felt he was the only one participating because of the limited involvement of all others reading this thread.

His method or "style" has been laid out, the basics of Fractuals have been spoke about, he has warned against false breakouts with the RSI bouncing around the 50 mark, his choice of Bill Williams indicators are given with explanations on how to read the movements, etc.............

My point is, he has accomplished what he set out to do. We all have the information needed to continue on if 9er should so chose to return to the sidelines. If your looking for a handout, I for one, would prefer he not return. Its an insult to his teachings. However, if your looking for a hand up, then I suggest you participate with the understanding of doing it HIS WAY until you can prove that there is a way to fine tune his style (if thats possible).

Do not take any of this as being disrespectful towards Mr. Pip either. In all honestly, Mr. Pip will forget more than I will ever know about successful trading and I thank him as well for the valuable information he has chosen to share as well.

I hope 9er does return, but if it should not be, I wish him the very best life has to offer.
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Goodness sake what happened in here? Contrary to popular opinion and as I stated in one of my last posts I took a much needed vacation (27 days to be exact). I always planned to come back, it is not my intention to quit what I have started. I had planned to pop in and out during my absence but we actually stumbled into a new venture, or a new vehicle for generating income. A vehicle I never dreamed I would get into, but I am smack dab in it now! Real-estate!

Trying to broaden my portfolio! But contrary to popular opinion I am back and will resume normal trading tomorrow.

I apologize to anyone that feels let down, but I gotta tell you it was a 9 months overdue break. I spend 12-14 hours a day staring at this screen and I needed a break.

Join me tomorrow if you wish. If not good luck to everyone!

Not for nothing but I was telling my wife how creating this forum had actually increased my trading percentage. By actually posting trades and analysis I found myself "talking" my way through my trading or into my trades. It helped phenominally!

If you want to join in, I welcome you to add your analysis, post your charts and take my lead. trust me, it will hone your trading edge!

Anyway - thought I would pop in and see if this thread was still alive, from what I can see it has all but died. I will do my best to breath new life into it! See you tomorrow!
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Very nice! Someone has been reading up on the chaos theory!! Get posts Vahn - hope to see you come back

Quoting vahn
H4 - This is an example of trading based on chaos theory. Trade when the AO form a pattern like what i circle in the chart after the first fractal appear outside alligator teeth.

Bias : Still bullish, not overbought again. But the Daily RSI still overbought. Beware
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Rather than beating someone up over a post, how about contributing yourself first? NuNix has a great grasp on this style of trading.

Quoting nightstocher
it's not that at all. kudos to you NuNix for seeing the value here and trying to keep the thread alive. It's just my hope that some of the voices that have a firm grasp of the patterns can chime in so we can better understand the movement of the patterns with the movement of the AO and RSI.
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
In light of my recent absence and due to the departure of my trading style in this thread, i have deemed it necessary to start over from scratch. I will update post#1 with a link to this page, to include thread rules. Keep in mind, this is my "style" of trading, not my "system" of trading. It is a collection of various different methods.

At first glance it may appear to be over the top or too complicated. Give it a chance, stick around or don't it's your choice.

I would like to reiterate one rule very profoundly though: Do NOT introduce or attempt to talk about anything other than the styles we use in this thread (to include indicators or EA's).

If you think you use a style or system that is superior, then do yourself a favor and go trade it. This style of trading may not be be for you and that is ok, as I stated I am no expert, but I trade what works for me!

I do not want to confuse those trying to learn, so please do not contradict my posts (although I will accept constructive and positive criticism!), let's analyze together and help each other out!
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Ok Let’s put this beast together bit by bit:


The History and why (self evident)


The God Father: H.M Gartley
H.M. Gartley first outlined the basic structure of the ABCD pattern and butterfly patterns. This is the most basic of rules in what drives the Forex market and also the DIRECT reason why most traders sit squarely in the 95% club.



Your trade failed? Why? Did you account for the fact that maybe you missed the most primal reason? The end of a B to C leg maybe? Or the completion of the ABCD pattern? Did you account for that? No? Why? Because your hard and fast system said to sell? “Oh, I’m sorry you just blew your account”.


Get your hands on anything and everything about Gartley patterns (the internet is flooded with the stuff). Do not learn to trade the patterns inclusive of themselves, but learn to see when a pattern starts, which leg is it in, how far will B to C go? Where can I enter, and when should I exit? Of course as we progress I will provide examples, post charts and explain.


"Please don’t worry I have an indicator that will paint these patterns for you, will SHOW you ABCD and various types of Butterfly patterns (which are failed ABCD patterns at some point, by the way). I will post the indicator in due course."

The God Father II: Bill Williams
Excuse me for being so bold, but until your system receives its own set of indicators and implemented into every trading platform known to man – you can keep it.



I prefer to dance with Chaos, the key words there? “Dance With”! Which we will do in here, we will dance all over these charts!


Download or buy Bill Williams book “New Trading Dimensions” and read it 10 times or more! Learn each of his six dimensions; as you read the dimensions, have a chart open and make comparative analysis between your chart and the examples given in the book.



Teach yourself to take at least 5 successful trades from each dimension method before moving on to the next dimension! Learn it, love it and breathe it


In closing - I believe I have found a perfect combination of indicators, Oscillators and moving averages to compliment our God Fathers systems.


As we build this style, I will post one indicator at a time with it's explanation and how I use it (until we've completed the chart)

Thread rules are next
Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you to their level and beat you with experience
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Thread Rules:
  1. Respect, Integrity always
  2. Never EVER speak in this thread of conspiracy theories, stop hunting brokers etc. If you manage your trades properly, neither of these should affect you anyway.
  3. Do not attempt to introduce any system, indicator, EA or otherwise into this thread (other than what I introduce). Doing so will earn you a one way ticket out of here
  4. Never, ever, ever speak ill of someone else in this thread. I don’t care how mad you get, take it off line. This thread is meant to be conducive to learning, not your personal sounding board.
  5. If someone posts a chart with an incorrect premise, do not scold, demean or otherwise. Share your thoughts. I am more than certain that I will post charts with an incorrect premise; I am NOT the expert, and I would thank you for correcting me. We are all equal in here, share what you see and why you think you see it. Post your charts!
  6. We will use an established set of indicators, which will never change. Why? Because our premise is based off the Chaos Theory (human greed and emotion); because of that, this system will never be “conspira-sized” stop hunted or otherwise. We are not smart enough to change it, but we damn sure can use it!
  7. Do not PM me to speak of starting a separate website or selling services. I am not interested; I make a very comfortable living trading from home. I am here to help. I am not here to rob hopes and steal dreams.
  8. No assumptions or presumptions of what you think you know. If you know it all, why are you here?
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
OK to start with let's open a fresh chart of the EU (or whichever pair you prefer, EXOTICS BEWARE!)

To this chart drop in the following Bill Williams indicators (with default settings):

Fractals
Alligator
Awesome Oscillator

When finished your chart should look like the attached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bw.gif Size: 30 KB
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Ok next RSI (Relative strength Index). Drop an RSI onto your chart (add to the default settings from MT4: 40, 50 & 60).

Did you know that the RSI can be used as a crystal ball? I LOVE the RSI! It can be used to signal the end of a trend, the beginning of a new trend.

Did you also know that the RSI can keep you in a positive trade in one direction even if it strikes 30 or 70 repeatedly? I call this strategic placement of trailing a stop. With the RSI I have ridden waves of 90 to 190 pips? One of my favorite little secrets!

Before properly learning this indicator, I had trouble, severe trouble figuring out how to exit my trades. I never knew how long to "stay in". I would close a trade for profit only to watch it continue to go my direction? Not anymore folks! You can ride waves - pretty damn effortlessly! I rode one today for 70 pips!

Your chart should now look like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bwrsi.gif Size: 30 KB
  • 9er
    Joined Oct 2012
Ok next - boring I know but SO important. Add your daily pivot points. I use IBFX these indicators come by default. You can use any pivot indicator you choose so long as it is for the Daily. We are intra-day traders.

If you trade the daily charts, drop a weekly pivot indicator -

Pivots are so critical

Your chart should now look like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bwrsipivots.gif Size: 34 KB
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