DislikedCould you explain what you mean by this? I don't quite understand.
I think weekly chart is bullish now simply because its green and it retraced over nearly all of last weeks range. I consider a retrace past 61.8% of previous candle a possible reversal sign like Graeme mentions in post 965.
However, monthly hindsight of down is still valid until the month closes so next week has a good chance to continue the trend down. There is a long bottom wick on the current...Ignored
The concept of hindsight should be similar to a trendline break. Would you consider a change in trend if price breaks out of weekly trendline by 50 or 100 pips? Weekly candle should close above/below the trendline to qualify for a trend reversal (assuming one knows how to correctly draw trendlines!)
I did try a couple of short probes on Thursday as the tip of wick was approaching 33% and 50% ending one in loss and one at BE. I forced myself to stay away from this pair on Friday due to two failed probes. This is where discipline comes into play. I have to listen to what market is conveying and limit my losses (milk the heck out when market conditions are favorable)... which is key for this trading method.
Looking ahead into my weekend's hindsight analysis for next week, I would wait for this pair to show clear direction next week as the upper and lower wick is almost the same size (buyers starring as sellers analogy used by Graeme with buyers winning first and then sellers winning). If Monday closes above the open of last week's candle with compelling momentum, I might consider going long. If Monday is a down day, then I would consider it as a confirmation for a weekly downtrend and continue stacking short positions.
Looking at my portfolio, I am overexposed on AUD, so I might just stay flat for now and focus on JPY weakness. Remainder of the year will be a very tough trading environment with random news from politicians causing significant volatility. In such unpredictable trading environment, it is better to trade near breakout/bounce of highs/lows of D1/WK/MN candles. Any level within the body will be a hit or miss.
Hope this clarifies.
Staying in my lane...