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A Gnarly Journal

EurUsd restored the supply balance, for now.

Gold is showing a bearish divergence.

4H /GC
Attached Image
Play the players, not the cards.
Inverted H&S on the daily Facebook. (FB) Maybe back up to $29?

Daily FB
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Play the players, not the cards.
Always a pleasure to visit this journal...

Keep it up
Quoting Freshpips
Always a pleasure to visit this journal...

Keep it up
Thank you.

I don't know why, but I've been playing with MA's and RSI's. There's a pattern I've spotted that used a 50 EMA crossing a 200 SMA after RSI 7 (weighted) hits an overbought/sold level set at 80/20. I'm not done with this as I'm still trying to set some rules and whatnot, but it's very important that the MA crossing happens only after the RSI has reached it's OB/S levels. After the MA crossing, look for the RSI to make convergence or divergence around the same level. During this time, it can not go back to 50. This will invalidate the move. This is the trigger.

Once you're in, taking profit can happen once the RSI hits 50, or the other OB/S level, or when price hits either MA, or wherever else you can think of. There's two instances in the chart below.

For the meantime, I suspect the Aud/Usd may be hitting around 1.035 this or next week. After that, parity looks probable.

15M AU
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Play the players, not the cards.
If price does not return to 1.022 before reaching 1.0365, then I think price will be strongly rejected after reaching 1.0365 and if I'm correct in that price will turn south from there.

1H A/U
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Play the players, not the cards.
Quoting GnarlyPips
If price does not return to 1.022 before reaching 1.0365, then I think price will be strongly rejected after reaching 1.0365 and if I'm correct in that price will turn south from there.

1H A/U
1.022 will now be used as a potential TP area in the future. The move to 1.0245 has softened the R/R of any potential trade once price revisits 1.022.

I am thinking of going short at 1.0365, but also 1.035 with maybe just a micro lot each. I am also thinking of using 1.039 as a SL. With this, the first position may occur a 55 pip loss, while the second 40. This gives a total of a 95 pips loss, which would almost be 2% of my equity.

Profit can occur at 1.022 or 1.0245. The first target, 245, may give 90 pips for the first position and 75 for the second. A total of 165 pips which is a little over 3% gain.

I know there are some traders on here that are interested in the trade balance on the CNY...
Play the players, not the cards.
Quoting GnarlyPips
1.022 will now be used as a potential TP area in the future. The move to 1.0245 has softened the R/R of any potential trade once price revisits 1.022.

I am thinking of going short at 1.0365, but also 1.035 with maybe just a micro lot each. I am also thinking of using 1.039 as a SL. With this, the first position may occur a 55 pip loss, while the second 40. This gives a total of a 95 pips loss, which would almost be 2% of my equity.

Profit can occur at 1.022 or 1.0245. The first target, 245, may give 90 pips for the first position and 75 for the...
Jeez, I get so wrapped up in my thoughts that I forget what I'm doing. Forget the % gain numbers and total pips, I just know the price levels are correct. I don't even feel like messing with the numbers at the moment since I don't think the position will be entered until next week.
Play the players, not the cards.
Aud/Usd closed for the week at 1.023. I will have to update my trade parameters as I believe this will change the behavior of price if price goes to my entry target and falls back down to 1.022.

No mixed up math this time! Cognitive bias sucks!
Play the players, not the cards.
You're getting there mate
Trade YOUR plan.
So close to entry. Maybe in a couple hours...
Play the players, not the cards.
Taken out exactly to the tenth of a fucking pip. What the fuck is that shit? So demotivating.
Play the players, not the cards.
The worst part is that on my demo account, I'm in the money! So, taking that I lost on my real account, and won on my fake account, what did I do wrong? Manage my risk? That's all I can think of.
Play the players, not the cards.
Been over a month since I've posted in this thread. I know I've posted about a "half-star pattern" on here, and I'm here to somewhat update that idea. The chart attached shows two "half-stars" that mirror each other.

I have been playing with circles, lately, too. When I draw them, I put that circle into two quadrants, or squares for the top/bottom half that price is moving in, and then start drawing lines from end to end and then see what's up.

In the chart I have attached, there are only two main points. The first square, from the top-left corner to the bottom-right corner, those are the two main points. From there, after having drawn the circle, the squares, and the first line, I start dissecting the squares individually and then together and sometimes draw lines from the line originating in the squares that intersect with the circle through said intersection. I wish I had a "tool" or "indicator" for this so it would be less time consuming, but I'm no programmer. (Sometimes, price will respect the outside of the circle.)

I see the Euro going up abroad.

4H Eur/Gbp
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Play the players, not the cards.
More circles.

Daily Eur/Usd
Daily Usd/Jpy
Daily Aud/Usd
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Play the players, not the cards.
I hate getting stopped out to the pip, but worst, to the tenth of a pip. Although I'm not a big believer in retail brokers doing stop hunts, I wouldn't say an outright no to any price manipulation. (I am a little paranoid.) (Or, maybe, I'm just that good at picking tops/bottoms even if I don't profit!)

Interesting to note that the big surge on the attached chart happened only once price hit the edge of the square/circle thingy I've been drawing.

(I need to work on better entries.)

15M A/U
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Play the players, not the cards.
Hopefully, these charts will explain better than me how these shapes come about.

Daily Eur/Jpy
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • Post# 57
  • Quote
  • Nov 15, 2012 5:17pm | Edited at 5:17pm – daily, 4h
On the Usd/Jpy, I can see price falling back down to 80.2 or 79.3. If this does not occur before December, then the idea is invalid.

If price falls down to 80.2, but not 79.3, then price may become stuck in a pennant/mini ascending triangle which would have a high chance of an upward breakout. If price falls down to 79.3, with 80.2 being hit before December, before the new year, this would result in a descending triangle, which may cause price to become stuck in the bottom-right point of the star. If this happens, the "fiscal cliff" deadline may very well provide serious momentum.

The first day of the new year lines up with a circle-TL intersection. The edge of the square is Feb 8th. If the "fiscal cliff" doesn't actually do anything on New Year's, then Feb 8th would be the next date to watch. If Feb 8th is the day that price leaves the bottom-right point, then 91 will be a target.

Edit: Daily
4H
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Play the players, not the cards.
Is it a good time to go long Gbp/Usd? I guess we'll see!

4H
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Play the players, not the cards.
Quoting GnarlyPips
Is it a good time to go long Gbp/Usd? I guess we'll see!

4H

Update for G/U 4H. It was a good time to go long, however, I did not actually go long. Aw shucks.

If price does not break the current resistance area, I'll be looking to get in if price touches the circular line.

Edit: Hold on, shit fucked up with my platform. It keeps moving my lines constantly. Getting annoying, actually.
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Play the players, not the cards.
Quoting GnarlyPips
Update for G/U 4H. It was a good time to go long, however, I did not actually go long. Aw shucks.

If price does not break the current resistance area, I'll be looking to get in if price touches the circular line.

Edit: Hold on, shit fucked up with my platform. It keeps moving my lines constantly. Getting annoying, actually.

Okay, this should be correct now. Stupid platform playing tricks on me.
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Play the players, not the cards.
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