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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver FX Traders Thread

Hello all- beeb is the fork expert here yes!

In any case silver.

Been thinking about it but not talking enough. Similar on the weekly gold chart, price action that is and possible cup and H but I don't see it here as clearly.
What I do see is a clearly defined rangeby far more manipulated than gold in my view it reaches these price points then sort of stands stilll and moves sideways until the next surge up or down.

Just playing this chart with three lines the optimal long would have been 26.50 area.
Now it looks like we are on the way to get stuck on old support/ now acting as somewhat of a pivot/ resistance @ 35.30 / 35/xx
with a high at and stronger resistance of appx 44 which will need to go to create a new high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 42.png Size: 40 KB
GOLD & SILVER - Learning, Day Trade, Long Term, Discussion, Fundies, Techs
Wednesday Report: Structural Damage on SP 500, GOLD undecided, EURO just bearish, USD stronger

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to gino32@gmail.com) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.
Attached File
File Type: pdf 14.11.2012.pdf   797 KB | 80 downloads
  • ddinnov
    Joined Feb 2010
Quoting XTrade
Hello all- beeb is the fork expert here yes!

In any case silver.

Been thinking about it but not talking enough. Similar on the weekly gold chart, price action that is and possible cup and H but I don't see it here as clearly.
What I do see is a clearly defined rangeby far more manipulated than gold in my view it reaches these price points then sort of stands stilll and moves sideways until the next surge up or down.

Just playing this chart with three lines the optimal long would have been 26.50 area.
Now it looks like we are on the way to...
Nice BUOB on the weekly there. Wonder if it will take off and if so if will retrace first.......

I'm holding my XAU long but considering knocking it on the head if we get a big risk off panic session today/tomorrow with all the news out.. It's only a small position from 1725ish. If 1720 doesn't hold I might chicken out although my stop is at 1712..
now the head and shoulder should be done we reached 1705 if it didnt break we will be up after that

that my reading happy to hear any other opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.png Size: 184 KB
  • ddinnov
    Joined Feb 2010
I waited and watched it get back up to 1725 and managed to get out my long unscathed Quite glad about that - felt a bit like a scalper/day trader for a while there - was split second stuff!
beeb & xtrade

Can it be assumed that we have seen the last leg of the correction or we'll likely continue this 1700-1720-1730-1739 range for a little longer?

I got my 2 buy limits in @ 1720 and 1710. Kind of even now. Stoploss @1650 (use microlots anyways).

Cheers.
Quoting bishopdotun
beeb & xtrade

Can it be assumed that we have seen the last leg of the correction or we'll likely continue this 1700-1720-1730-1739 range for a little longer?

I got my 2 buy limits in @ 1720 and 1710. Kind of even now. Stoploss @1650 (use microlots anyways).

Cheers.
Unfortunately I don't do prophecies dotun.....

Given that there are now reasonably established horizontal ranges in gold and especially silver on 240 mins, one strategy would be to look for a breach and retest of the range.

beeb

EDIT - FWIW at the moment I would like to see an upside breach establish support around 1733 for gold and 33.20 for silver - remember these levels will change over time as I don't trade on the horizontal....

I also use much tighter stops on my positions than many on here, so if I'm wrong I live to fight another day...see post # 21,513 (thanks KADC)
Quoting bishopdotun
beeb & xtrade

Can it be assumed that we have seen the last leg of the correction or we'll likely continue this 1700-1720-1730-1739 range for a little longer?

I got my 2 buy limits in @ 1720 and 1710. Kind of even now. Stoploss @1650 (use microlots anyways).

Cheers.
As far as I'm concerned, all bets are off while all the stock markets continue to fall with no loss of momentum; hopefully targeting no lower than the June lows.

Once gold broke below $1720 I became rather concerned for near-term gold and silver futures. The last of my above $1700 trendlines all converge around $1710, and if this fails to hold (ignoring the spike down around 9:45am EST) I see a return to $1695, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, or $1685 where the resistance of the bear channel fall from $1800 and the bull support line from Jul-Aug meet.

I've reduced my long to half a position and have shorts in NZD/USD, AUD/CAD, and re-entered my short in EUR/JPY (SL @104) now that I believe the Japanese election/easing news has run its course. This is also an excellent buying opportunity for mining stocks. The NUGT x3 mining ETF could be heading all the way back to $8 (I'm adding more at $11, $10, $9, and $8). Hopefully the metals don't hit similar lows as I'm already fully loaded on ETFs and I'd like to start making some money on my Dec GC futures.
Quoting beeb
I also use much tighter stops on my positions than many on here, so if I'm wrong I live to fight another day...see post # 25,513
Do you mean #21,513 or are you referencing a future post?
Quoting Bo_fajer
now the head and shoulder should be done we reached 1705 if it didnt break we will be up after that

that my reading happy to hear any other opinion
When looking at technical patterns, if it only sort-of looks like something, it isn't, and calling that a head and shoulders pattern is quite a stretch.
Quoting KADC
Do you mean #21,513 or are you referencing a future post?
Well since "I don't do prophecies" we had better make that 21,513



beeb
Quoting beeb
I'm relaxed but I put a lot of info out here - 250+ views of a chart and one comment kinda pisses me off sometimes......

beeb
You already know your charts are appreciated from past comments, and I'm grateful for the fact that, for the most part, people only post when they have something constructive to add to this thread; otherwise this would quickly deteriorate to being as useless as most of the Forex threads.

p.s. I'm still only getting sporadic thread update notifications.
Thanks KADC

Here's SI 20 min:

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZHeXwpfm

Blue lines show the horizontal range but I'm more interested in the series of circled highs that are progressively lower in the fork. Price needs to take out some of these highs in the slope of the fork to rejuvenate the bullish move.....

beeb
Ok guys, here good profitable setup. Sell gold at 1725-1728. SL 1740. Tp 1700. Reverse should be at 1728. If you will sit al day you can try to squeeze SL.
I still feel the bias is a little tilted to bull side though whole economic situation around the world now is so complicated and it's so hard to read where these prices might swing. In this age of price manipulation and QEs, it's only wise to thread carefully with positions until Jan-Feb.
Cheers.

Quoting beeb
Thanks KADC

Here's SI 20 min:

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZHeXwpfm

Blue lines show the horizontal range but I'm more interested in the series of circled highs that are progressively lower in the fork. Price needs to take out some of these highs in the slope of the fork to rejuvenate the bullish move.....

beeb
Thursday Report: Who is buying the EURO? Bear bias all the way

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to gino32@gmail.com) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.

**I forgot to change previous report link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post6196578
Attached File
File Type: pdf 15.11.2012.pdf   765 KB | 63 downloads
Quoting beeb
Here's SI 20 min:
The silver chart is decidedly less worrisome than the gold chart at the moment and is the only reason I've held onto my Dec GC long for so long. If the silver price falters as well I'm either exiting or going short.
  • Post# 21,778
  • Quote
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:34am | Edited at 12:35am – forgot to insert the link
Quoting bishopdotun
I still feel the bias is a little tilted to bull side though whole economic situation around the world now is so complicated and it's so hard to read where these prices might swing. In this age of price manipulation and QEs, it's only wise to thread carefully with positions until Jan-Feb.
Cheers.
The bull or bear bias is relative to your investment time frame. If you're scalping or day-trading, your bias will obviously change much more frequenly than someone who, for example, got in long at $1685 and intends to hold until the top of the next leg up.

Here's a charts showing a 20-year annual average which I consider when buying ETFs, whereas for futures, stocks, and Forex I look at the candles, trend lines, and RSI on the daily, hourly, and five-minute charts for entry and exit targets.

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/go...easonal-chart/

Note that January starts where December ends in case that's not clear.
KADC,

I have a medium term approach to trading. Looking at the daily chart closely, i feel this moment is only a correction face. By the time the looming US fiscal tragedy, excessive QEs and euro debt burden comes live in 2013 (they still have room now), the currencies may likely become worthless and metals might be a safe haven. It is great USD's having a fake ride now. It also will not be long before it's fall of like magnitude.

I have 2 long positions @1710 and 1720 which i do not intend to quit. I'm however hoping that price could drop a little further to 1680 before December so i can get a better bargain trade.

Cheers.

Quoting KADC
The bull or bear bias is relative to your investment time frame. If you're scalping or day-trading, your bias will obviously change much more frequenly than someone who, for example, got in long at $1685 and intends to hold until the top of the next leg up.

Here's a charts showing a 20-year annual average which I consider when buying ETFs, whereas for futures, stocks, and Forex I look at the candles, trend lines, and RSI on the daily, hourly, and five-minute charts for entry and exit targets.

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/go...easonal-chart/

Note...
Quoting bishopdotun
KADC,

I have a medium term approach to trading. Looking at the daily chart closely, i feel this moment is only a correction face. By the time the looming US fiscal tragedy, excessive QEs and euro debt burden comes live in 2013 (they still have room now), the currencies may likely become worthless and metals might be a safe haven. It is great USD's having a fake ride now. It also will not be long before it's fall of like magnitude.

I have 2 long positions @1710 and 1720 which i do not intend to quit. I'm however hoping that price could drop...

At least I'm not alone in the long of Gold. I'm still holding mine at 1593 position...
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