Max's Simple Ride the Wave System

END OF 6TH WEEK:

Week 1: 0 trades closed for 0p
Week 2: 3 trades closed for +365p
Week 3: 4 trades closed for -284p (testing range trading ideas and hedging)
Week 4: 17 trades closed for +171p (testing range trading ideas and hedging for 1st half of the week)
Week 5: 1 trades closed for -104p
Week 6: 6 trades closed +7p

TOTAL: 31 trades closed for +155p.

Still open: 2 trades currently at -5p.

NOTES: I need to find better entries and trailing stops. Had 2 trades last week go against me and stop out at -100p+ each and then the remaining 4 trades went as far as +190p but I only got about 90 of those after it reversed and hit my trailing stop. I tried closing half position and then trail the rest which helped I think. I also need to follow through with the idea earlier in the thread and add to successful positions.

MONDAY 22 OCT 2012

GBPUSD just crossed down but with short term stoch in oversold area it will turn back up for the short timeframe. Let's see if we get a retrace candle today or tomorrow and a new short trend long term.


GBPJPY price is above EMAs showing long bias but stochs and MACD all show short movement. That with 2 last candles being short makes me nervous to go long here. There is a long position in play here that began 18/10 and is currently at -90p.

GBPAUD in the process of crossing short but with long stoch and MACD showing reversal, this is too early to tell either way.

EURGBP still on very long term long trend. Got a couple of retrace candles last few days so may look for an entry to go long. Both stochs and MACD showing reversal so may wait for longer before rejoining that long trend.

EURUSD is similar so will wait.

EURJPY is in uptrend but with a pin bar at top of latest long move followed by a solid short candle, I am reluctant to join the long until stochs show a better time.

EURAUD could be an opportunity to go long. MACD and stochs are up except short term stoch which is turning in the oversold section. Coupled with a continued long bias means this could be a good time to go long here. I do have a BUY order at most recent high so I will leave it here.

USDJPY is long trend but short stoch and MACD both show things could turn soon. I have a position open here at +83p so I may close half and trail the rest.

USDCAD is stuffing around along the EMAs with no real direction. After a couple of good long candles, all indicators point up showing it may continue up for a few days but then crash back down. I did have a SHORT order at a recent low but I have removed it as the price has gone too far the other way.

AUDUSD price went short a week or 2 ago with some good long candles following it. Long term stoch is in lower half and has turned up. MACD is increasing from below zero line. Short term stoch has just turned down. I think price will drop today and or tomorrow but then move north.


AUDJPY similar to above. Will drop in short term but then?

AUDNZD MACD and long term stoch rising but short term stoch turning down. Price has been in nice uptrend making EMAs cross up. Could be good for long but we need to wait and see.

TUESDAY 23 OCT 2012

Yesterday I closed 2 positions. 1 was half position on USDJPY for +121p winning me +61p and the other was GBPJPY which had finally made its way back to break even and then dropped a little. It looked like dropping further so I closed it at -21p. Looking at the charts now and it looks like it is settling in for a long bias. Oh well we live and learn.

So now lets have a look at this mornings charts with previous forecasts in mind:

GBPUSD just crossed down but with short term stoch in oversold area it will turn back up for the short timeframe. Let's see if we get a retrace candle today or tomorrow and a new short trend long term.
MACD just crossed zero to the downside and long term stoch is about to touch oversold. Short stoch is already in oversold but EMAs are crossed down. Will it continue short? MACD hist has increased to the downside and long stoch not yet in oversold. I think this may actually continue short today. Lets see. No trade.


GBPJPY price is above EMAs showing long bias but stochs and MACD all show short movement. That with 2 last candles being short makes me nervous to go long here. There is a long position in play here that began 18/10 and is currently at -90p.
As mentioned above, I closed out this position when it got back around break even. But then it continued upwards. EMAs are up as is MACD and long stoch at around 50%. The only issue I have is short stoch points down but with green signal line slowing and closing on the red which may be a cross to the upside. All this just underneath the overbought line. Risky! I think the move today will be long. No trade.

GBPAUD in the process of crossing short but with long stoch and MACD showing reversal, this is too early to tell either way.
Short stoch crossed to upside in the oversold area. MACD hist reduced but still on the bottom side. Long stoch still pushes south. EMAs crossed for short bias. Mixed signals. If I have to make a decision I would suggest a move long today. No trade.

EURGBP still on very long term long trend. Got a couple of retrace candles last few days so may look for an entry to go long. Both stochs and MACD showing reversal so may wait for longer before rejoining that long trend.
Still looks good for long. Except both short and long term stochs are now in overbought territory but not yet pointing down. MACD is still pointing up with increasing Hist. I think it will go long today but no trade for me.

EURUSD is similar so will wait.
Same long trend with MACD Hist reducing but increased yesterday. Long Stoch crossed to upside. Short stoch pointing down but still above the 50% mark. Could it turn supporting more long moves? I currently have a BUY order a recent high. I will leave it here as a good position to jump in on any resumption of long trend.

EURJPY is in uptrend but with a pin bar at top of latest long move followed by a solid short candle, I am reluctant to join the long until stochs show a better time.
Wow was I wrong yesterday. Short stoch crossed back up even though it is in overbought area. Price blew out the retrace candle the day before at more than 2x its size and blew past the top of the pin bar the day before. I should have put a LONG order at the top of that pin. So MACD Hist increased as well as Long Stoch pointing up. Looks long but I may have missed it. No trade.


EURAUD could be an opportunity to go long. MACD and stochs are up except short term stoch which is turning in the oversold section. Coupled with a continued long bias means this could be a good time to go long here. I do have a BUY order at most recent high so I will leave it here.
MACD is above zero but dropping. Hist is below zero and decreasing in value. Long Stoch points down but quite flat. Short Stoch looks like its about to cross up. EMAs are long term long trend. I am leaning towards long movement today. I have a LONG order at top of recent high so am in a good position.

USDJPY is long trend but short stoch and MACD both show things could turn soon. I have a position open here at +83p so I may close half and trail the rest.
This looks dangerously overbought. MACD is way up above zero along with the Hist. Long Stoch is up near overbought but strong for long bias. Short Stoch has been overbought for a few days. Price is way above the EMAs and EMAs are spaced very wide. So I am predicting a drop today and will keep an eye on this to exit immediately I see drop in H1 chart. Drop may only be 1 or 2 days so can re enter once the reversal is complete. Currently my half position is at +145p.

USDCAD is stuffing around along the EMAs with no real direction. After a couple of good long candles, all indicators point up showing it may continue up for a few days but then crash back down. I did have a SHORT order at a recent low but I have removed it as the price has gone too far the other way.
Everything points up today but Short Stoch is in overbought territory and yesterdays candle was a short pin bar. Bad sign. Because so much looks up, I will place a LONG order at top of recent price action with a 1.5 candle stop.

AUDUSD price went short a week or 2 ago with some good long candles following it. Long term stoch is in lower half and has turned up. MACD is increasing from below zero line. Short term stoch has just turned down. I think price will drop today and or tomorrow but then move north.
Price is above EMAs but EMAs are closing for a cross upwards. MACD is below zero but pointing up while Hist is above zero and declining. Long Stoch crossed up below 50% and Short Stoch crossed down from overbought. Talk about mixed signals. Stay out of this one. No Trade.

AUDJPY similar to above. Will drop in short term but then?
Everything points up here but I am worried MACD hist is large and may reduce today and also Short Stoch is in overbought territory. I feel it will continue long today but not by much. No trade.

AUDNZD MACD and long term stoch rising but short term stoch turning down. Price has been in nice downtrend making EMAs cross up. Could be good for long but we need to wait and see.
Price still above EMAs with EMAs crossing up yesterday. MACD and short stoch both moving short while long stoch still pointing up but now above 50% line. Short stoch crossed down from overbought line. I think a short push today but no trade.

WEDNESDAY 24 OCT 2012

Yesterday I closed the remainder on USDJPY for +180p winning me +90p as all signals were dropping and I was concerned it would retrace. It was a good idea as price dropped 10p total over the day and looks overbought.
So now lets have a look at this mornings charts with previous forecasts in mind:

I currently have 1 trade open at -40p:


GBPUSD MACD just crossed zero to the downside and long term stoch is about to touch oversold. Short stoch is already in oversold but EMAs are crossed down. Will it continue short? MACD hist has increased to the downside and long stoch not yet in oversold. I think this may actually continue short today. Lets see. No trade.
It did go short yesterday. I was right. It dropped 100p but settled to close 60p down. All signs show a continuation of this shorting but I think it may be too early for a good short trend. Lets see what today does. No trade.


GBPJPY I closed out this position when it got back around break even. But then it continued upwards. EMAs are up as is MACD and long stoch at around 50%. The only issue I have is short stoch points down but with green signal line slowing and closing on the red which may be a cross to the upside. All this just underneath the overbought line. Risky! I think the move today will be long. No trade.
I’m glad I closed this position when I did. It dropped a lot yesterday and with MACD now declining from the upside, it could drop a lot more yet.

GBPAUD Short stoch crossed to upside in the oversold area. MACD hist reduced but still on the bottom side. Long stoch still pushes south. EMAs crossed for short bias. Mixed signals. If I have to make a decision I would suggest a move long today. No trade.
There you go. Price went long to 60p but then finished at 30p. Long stoch is still short and MACD signals are pointing down. Signals still too mixed for a trade but overall short I think.

EURGBP Still looks good for long. Except both short and long term stochs are now in overbought territory but not yet pointing down. MACD is still pointing up with increasing Hist. I think it will go long today but no trade for me.
Well the stochs talked. Both in overbought so price dropped yesterday. MACD also dropped from above but signal lines are not pointing down so uptrend may actually continue.

EURUSD Same long trend with MACD Hist reducing but increased yesterday. Long Stoch crossed to upside. Short stoch pointing down but still above the 50% mark. Could it turn supporting more long moves? I currently have a BUY order a recent high. I will leave it here as a good position to jump in on any resumption of long trend.
Well short stoch continued down as MACD also and then also price for 98p to close down 68p. Nice move. I am beginning to lose respect for the long stoch. I think it will continue short but it may only be for a little while. I removed the BUY order from recent high. Short stoch is now in bottom 50% area. I am keen to see if MACD and stoch reverse any time soon and so continue uptrend. If they do, I will jump on in favour of the existing trend.

EURJPY Wow was I wrong yesterday. Short stoch crossed back up even though it is in overbought area. Price blew out the retrace candle the day before at more than 2x its size and blew past the top of the pin bar the day before. I should have put a LONG order at the top of that pin. So MACD Hist increased as well as Long Stoch pointing up. Looks long but I may have missed it. No trade.
That long candle was uncommon and yesterday it followed the signals and fell almost the length of the long candle the day prior. MACD declining and short stoch dropping. It will continue short today but in an uptrend. No trade.


EURAUD MACD is above zero but dropping. Hist is below zero and decreasing in value. Long Stoch points down but quite flat. Short Stoch looks like its about to cross up. EMAs are long term long trend. I am leaning towards long movement today. I have a LONG order at top of recent high so am in a good position.
MACD continued decreasing from below with both lines pointing down. The cross up of the short stoch completed but price went nowhere for the day resulting in a doji. So now where will it go. I would guess up.

USDJPY This looks dangerously overbought. MACD is way up above zero along with the Hist. Long Stoch is up near overbought but strong for long bias. Short Stoch has been overbought for a few days. Price is way above the EMAs and EMAs are spaced very wide. So I am predicting a drop today and will keep an eye on this to exit immediately I see drop in H1 chart. Drop may only be 1 or 2 days so can re enter once the reversal is complete. Currently my half position is at +145p.
Closed this as mentioned above. Price was far from EMAs and MACD looked huge and stoch was overbought. Sure enough it did drop but not by much. Shows there may be a continuation of the uptrend today. Lets see. Too risky.


USDCAD Everything points up today but Short Stoch is in overbought territory and yesterdays candle was a short pin bar. Bad sign. Because so much looks up, I will place a LONG order at top of recent price action with a 1.5 candle stop.
BUY order was triggered today but then price dropped to -40p resulting in a nice doji. I think the bears have this one but MACD is increasing and the lines are pointing up while stoch is crossing down from overbought. I think it will drop a little today but then continue up. Increased my stop to 2 candle low of -70p.

AUDUSD Price is above EMAs but EMAs are closing for a cross upwards. MACD is below zero but pointing up while Hist is above zero and declining. Long Stoch crossed up below 50% and Short Stoch crossed down from overbought. Talk about mixed signals. Stay out of this one. No Trade.
MACD decreasing from upside but signal lines were pointing up are now flat and below zero. All signalling short bias. Stoch is downwards but now in bottom half and could turn at any time. Price closed below both EMAs forcing the EMAs to abort their crossing upwards. A lot of short pressure here. I think price may head south today.

AUDJPY Everything points up here but I am worried MACD hist is large and may reduce today and also Short Stoch is in overbought territory. I feel it will continue long today but not by much. No trade.
I was right. It fell 84p to finish 58p down. Good move. MACD reduced from above but its lines still point up. I feel this may move up today with every intention of going down. I wait.

AUDNZD Price still above EMAs with EMAs crossing up yesterday. MACD and short stoch both moving short while long stoch still pointing up but now above 50% line. Short stoch crossed down from overbought line. I think a short push today but no trade.
Price followed lines from MACD and pushed up. Trend may be establishing itself upwards. I will wait for a short candle to enter off.

THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012

The only trade I had open yesterday was USDCAD and it climbed to close to break even before dropping again this morning. The more I refer to previous days predictions, the more I see EMAs not counting for much and MACD counting for a lot! I need to add a weighing system to these signals I thinks. Try and work out what works with what and such. I am beginning to think short stoch may signal what may happen in next 24hrs but MACD and long stoch give you multi day bias. I need to work this somehow.

So now lets have a look at this mornings charts with previous forecasts in mind:

I currently have 1 trade open at -24p:


GBPUSD MACD did go short yesterday. I was right. It dropped 100p but settled to close 60p down. All signs show a continuation of this shorting but I think it may be too early for a good short trend. Lets see what today does. No trade.
Good decision not to go short just yet. Large long candle yesterday. Stochs both point up but EMAs and MACD point down. Signals are mixed. No trade.


GBPJPY I’m glad I closed this position when I did. It dropped a lot yesterday and with MACD now declining from the upside, it could drop a lot more yet.
Well MACD certainly does provide good signal when you take into account the red and blue lines, where they point to and if they are above or below zero. Learning a lot. 2 days ago MACD was dropping but lines were still above zero and pointing up. Price retraced after a nice long candle the day prior and EMAs pointed long. Yesterday price continued up and with short stoch crossing back upwards, this long move could continue.

GBPAUD There you go. Price went long to 60p but then finished at 30p. Long stoch is still short and MACD signals are pointing down. Signals still too mixed for a trade but overall short I think.
I was right. Price shorted yesterday for 85p to settle short at 74p. Good move. But was it a retrace candle in a down trend? Too early to tell.

EURGBP Well the stochs talked. Both in overbought so price dropped yesterday. MACD also dropped from above but signal lines are not pointing down so uptrend may actually continue.
Wow! Price continued dropping yesterday in a big way. Stochs still overbought with short term stoch now pointing down but from above 50%. MACD still above zero but red line is in strong decline. Because the lines are so far from the zero line and the hist is almost crossing below, I am keen to see if price may short for a while today but move long overall over the next few days. Let’s see.


EURUSD Well short stoch continued down as MACD also and then also price for 98p to close down 68p. Nice move. I am beginning to lose respect for the long stoch. I think it will continue short but it may only be for a little while. I removed the BUY order from recent high. Short stoch is now in bottom 50% area. I am keen to see if MACD and stoch reverse any time soon and so continue uptrend. If they do, I will jump on in favour of the existing trend.
Wow I was right. It continued short for another 62p but then finally closed down 15p. Short stoch now low towards oversold and turning up. Long stoch showing long signal and MACD lines pointing down but still above zero line. I am thinking more short action today.

EURJPY That long candle was uncommon and yesterday it followed the signals and fell almost the length of the long candle the day prior. MACD declining and short stoch dropping. It will continue short today but in an uptrend. No trade.
Similar to last, it dropped but then recovered for a small drop overall. MACD is declining but with lines still above zero and not pointing down, and long stoch pointing up, I am going to suggest short term short action but long term long movement. No trade.

EURAUD MACD continued decreasing from below with both lines pointing down. The cross up of the short stoch completed but price went nowhere for the day resulting in a doji. So now where will it go. I would guess up.
Boy was I wrong! It dropped like a rock for 127p. Beautiful! I really need to take note of the red MACD line and where it points. Also long stoch pointed down from above 50% and short was not a big point upwards, but rather flat in its crossing. Learning, learning, learning. So today I see more short action.

USDJPY Closed this as mentioned above. Price was far from EMAs and MACD looked huge and stoch was overbought. Sure enough it did drop but not by much. Shows there may be a continuation of the uptrend today. Lets see. Too risky.
MACD did drop on histogram but signal lines and stochs are all pointing upwards with short stoch in overbought territory. MACD red line has begun turning but still points up so I think movement today may be a small short or small long candle.

USDCAD BUY order was triggered today but then price dropped to -40p resulting in a nice doji. I think the bears have this one but MACD is increasing and the lines are pointing up while stoch is crossing down from overbought. I think it will drop a little today but then continue up. Increased my stop to 2 candle low of -70p.
It did gain today luckily. It dropped 30p during the day and went back up to almost break even but then gained around 20p overall for the day. MACD and long stoch all look good for continuation of long trend but short stoch is overbought and now crossing down. Can the bulls overpower the bears today? I think they might. Trade stays. Stop stays.


AUDUSD MACD decreasing from upside but signal lines were pointing up are now flat and below zero. All signalling short bias. Stoch is downwards but now in bottom half and could turn at any time. Price closed below both EMAs forcing the EMAs to abort their crossing upwards. A lot of short pressure here. I think price may head south today.
Wow was I wrong about this one! Looking back the MACD lines were still pointing up and long stoch was pointing up from below 50%. Price moved way up today with 87p gain. It has once again closed above the EMAs. With the EMAs flat showing no real trending happening here, Stochs and MACD point up so I am going to say price will move up today.


AUDJPY I was right. It fell 84p to finish 58p down. Good move. MACD reduced from above but its lines still point up. I feel this may move up today with every intention of going down. I wait.
I predicted this pair to rise yesterday and it, by 67p. Why? Well short stoch was overbought and had crossed downwards to just below overbought. Does this mean it is no longer overbought and could attract the bulls? EMAs showed recent long cross meaning an attempt to go long trend. Long stoch pointed up at around 50% but not far above. MACD had decreasing hist over zero line but then the signal lines both pointed strongly upwards. This all somehow pointed to long pressure. I need to find a way to harness this. Today I am predicting continuation of long move.

AUDNZD Price followed lines from MACD and pushed up. Trend may be establishing itself upwards. I will wait for a short candle to enter off.
I predicted a new uptrend here with maybe a short candle yesterday where I could place a BUY entry order. I was right in that it did produce a short candle. Short stoch was aggressively pointing down while all else was pointing up. This should tell me a short candle but not much body to it. The EMAs are not really separating so maybe this new trend is not so trendy afterall. MACD red line is flat and below zero while long stoch is pointing up but well above 50% and turning flat. I think we see even pressure and if anything I think we may end up with small short candle.

FRIDAY 26 OCT 2012

The only trade I had open yesterday was USDCAD and it climbed again but dropped again but at least its not dropping too bad. I have some ideas about scoring the various signals I get and weighting others to predict the next days movement. If I can get more than 50% correct using good money management I may get a regular profit off this system.

I am also cutting down the number of pairs I detail here as it is taking a while each day to get it all organised. I’m still checking those charts but will not detail here and not include in my totals.

So now lets have a look at this mornings charts with previous forecasts in mind:

I currently have 1 trade open at -20p:


GBPUSD Good decision not to go short just yet. Large long candle yesterday. Stochs both point up but EMAs and MACD point down. Signals are mixed. No trade.
I know I did not forecast which way price would go yesterday but looking at the stochs and macd again, I would have said long. And it did! (easy for me to say now!). Price rose another nice long candle of 80p. All signals look good for more long action today.


GBPAUD I was right. Price shorted yesterday for 85p to settle short at 74p. Good move. But was it a retrace candle in a down trend? Too early to tell.
No downtrend yet. Price roared back up above the EMAs yesterday. With macd rise by .00002 and short stoch pointing up, I am leaning towards long move today.

EURGBP Wow! Price continued dropping yesterday in a big way. Stochs still overbought with short term stoch now pointing down but from above 50%. MACD still above zero but red line is in strong decline. Because the lines are so far from the zero line and the hist is almost crossing below, I am keen to see if price may short for a while today but move long overall over the next few days. Let’s see.
WOW! Another massive short candle. Great opportunity to get some serious pips over just 2 days – missed. Price now way below EMAs with all stochs and macds pointing down. I think today we will have another short move.

EURUSD Wow I was right. It continued short for another 62p but then finally closed down 15p. Short stoch now low towards oversold and turning up. Long stoch showing long signal and MACD lines pointing down but still above zero line. I am thinking more short action today.
Yay! Another correct call. Short candle of 40p but there was some long action for a while. Almost a pin bar created. Makes sense considering the mixed signals. Today is even more mixed with short stoch oversold but still pointing down – short, long stoch crossing up but rather flat – flat and macd pointing down from the long side – short. If anything I would predict short candle today.

EURAUD Boy was I wrong! It dropped like a rock for 127p. Beautiful! I really need to take note of the red MACD line and where it points. Also long stoch pointed down from above 50% and short was not a big point upwards, but rather flat in its crossing. Learning, learning, learning. So today I see more short action.
I was right. It shorted a little again today. 35p. We now have everything pointing down with short stoch right on oversold but still pointing down. I think short today.

USDJPY MACD did drop on histogram but signal lines and stochs are all pointing upwards with short stoch in overbought territory. MACD red line has begun turning but still points up so I think movement today may be a small short or small long candle.
Wrong! We got a good long candle of 50p. Short stoch now well in overbought area but flat – flat, long stoch on overbought line but pointing up – long, macd still pointing up strongly and with hist increasing up – long. I think long today.

USDCAD It did gain today luckily. It dropped 30p during the day and went back up to almost break even but then gained around 20p overall for the day. MACD and long stoch all look good for continuation of long trend but short stoch is overbought and now crossing down. Can the bulls overpower the bears today? I think they might. Trade stays. Stop stays.
Movement was overall up with another long pin bar yesterday. Today the short stoch is up near overbought but rather flat – flat, long stoch is pointing up but up near overbought, macd is strongly long but with hist same value as day before upwards – long. I think long today which is good because I need this trade to go long for me.


AUDUSD Wow was I wrong about this one! Looking back the MACD lines were still pointing up and long stoch was pointing up from below 50%. Price moved way up today with 87p gain. It has once again closed above the EMAs. With the EMAs flat showing no real trending happening here, Stochs and MACD point up so I am going to say price will move up today.
Wrong! Price did go up 40p but then dropped a little overall for the day. Today all stochs and macd point up so I am going to say yesterday was a retrace for a better price and today will go long.

AUDNZD I predicted a new uptrend here with maybe a short candle yesterday where I could place a BUY entry order. I was right in that it did produce a short candle. Short stoch was aggressively pointing down while all else was pointing up. This should tell me a short candle but not much body to it. The EMAs are not really separating so maybe this new trend is not so trendy afterall. MACD red line is flat and below zero while long stoch is pointing up but well above 50% and turning flat. I think we see even pressure and if anything I think we may end up with small short candle.
We got a long candle yesterday but the with wicks on either end almost the size of the body. So accurate prediction there that bulls and bears would wrestle this one. Today we have all pointing up except short stoch still pointing down but now past the 50% line. I think mixed signals today but overall may go long.

End of week 7 I closed out the USDCAD trade at break even. It looks good for further long activity but it's just been way too slow to move.

END OF 7TH WEEK:

Week 1: 0 trades closed for 0p
Week 2: 3 trades closed for +365p
Week 3: 4 trades closed for -284p (testing range trading ideas and hedging)
Week 4: 17 trades closed for +171p (testing range trading ideas and hedging for 1st half of the week)
Week 5: 1 trades closed for -104p
Week 6: 6 trades closed for +7p
Week 7: 3 trades closed for +130p

TOTAL: 34 trades closed for +285p.

Still open: 0 trades currently open.

NOTES: This week I spent more time interpreting and predicting price and stochastics and MACD and in particular checking those predictions the next day or 2 to see how accurate. I feel I am getting more accurate at short term predictions and may evolve this system into a short term system where I place order with set targets based on ATR or something similar. More testing required.

MONDAY 29 OCT 2012

On Friday night I closed out my remaining trade on USDCAD at breakeven. I had been watching it and it did rise for my but overall was very noncommittal so I closed it. No trades open at beginning of this week and in fact not even any orders either. A fresh week to get it right. Been good last 2 weeks. Lets see if I can get 3 weeks in a row.

So now lets have a look at this mornings charts with previous forecasts in mind:

I currently have 0 trades open:

GBPUSD I know I did not forecast which way price would go yesterday but looking at the stochs and macd again, I would have said long. And it did! (easy for me to say now!). Price rose another nice long candle of 80p. All signals look good for more long action today.
It did look good for more long action only MACD was right on the zero line and not really pointing well in either direction. The action was a small short candle on Friday. Today MACD is still flat with short stoch nearly overbought and long stoch pointing up from below 50% line. Even the EMAs are flat! No trade today but if anything I think it will move long.


GBPAUD No downtrend yet. Price roared back up above the EMAs yesterday. With macd rise by .00002 and short stoch pointing up, I am leaning towards long move today.
EMAs crossed down recently and MACD and long stoch down also. Short stoch pointing up but flatter than the day before. I think today will be short.

EURGBP WOW! Another massive short candle. Great opportunity to get some serious pips over just 2 days – missed. Price now way below EMAs with all stochs and macds pointing down. I think today we will have another short move.
Wrong! It was a small long candle. But everything still points down including the EMAs even though they have not crossed just yet. I am going to place a SHORT order at half way between the close and low of yesterdays candle with 1.5 candle high as stop (-43p). Let’s see how I am progressing in my predictions.


EURUSD Yay! Another correct call. Short candle of 40p but there was some long action for a while. Almost a pin bar created. Makes sense considering the mixed signals. Today is even more mixed with short stoch oversold but still pointing down – short, long stoch crossing up but rather flat – flat and macd pointing down from the long side – short. If anything I would predict short candle today.
Well there was a lot of short action Friday but overall it rose. Not by much though. MACD has now separated nice and pointing down, but from above zero. Short stoch is in oversold which long stoch is above 50% and still rather flat. I am thinking no trade today but there could be a small short candle.

EURAUD I was right. It shorted a little again today. 35p. We now have everything pointing down with short stoch right on oversold but still pointing down. I think short today.
I was right. Short candle Friday. Signals still point down but short term stoch is now oversold and may result in long price action. Overall it should drop again so I am adding a SHORT order at low of previous candle with 1 candle high as stop of -88p.


USDJPY Wrong! We got a good long candle of 50p. Short stoch now well in overbought area but flat – flat, long stoch on overbought line but pointing up – long, macd still pointing up strongly and with hist increasing up – long. I think long today.
Wow was I wrong! Massive short candle Friday of 80p even though everything was up. Looking back I should have been concerned at how high above the zero line the MACD lines were. Maybe that should be a sign of overbought or something going forward. Will have to remember that one. So today, MACD is stalled and flat in positive territory with Hist dropping. Short stoch points down but long stoch points up but near the overbought line. So mixed signals but if I had to choose I would go short today. No trade. It’s interesting because without the indicators and just looking at price and EMAs this looks like a really good retrace candle to go long from. A few weeks ago I would have done that. Let’s see what happens.


USDCAD Movement was overall up with another long pin bar yesterday. Today the short stoch is up near overbought but rather flat – flat, long stoch is pointing up but up near overbought, macd is strongly long but with hist same value as day before upwards – long. I think long today which is good because I need this trade to go long for me.
Trade did go long eventually but very flat overall. Closed the trade at breakeven as mentioned earlier. MACD still points up along with long stoch and short stoch is in overbought but flat. I think it may actually continue long today. We’ll see.

AUDUSD Wrong! Price did go up 40p but then dropped a little overall for the day. Today all stochs and macd point up so I am going to say yesterday was a retrace for a better price and today will go long.
Right! Long candle of 37p. Friday we had a cross of EMAs and all signals point upwards. I will place a LONG order for this one at top of Friday’s long candle with a stop of low of that candle of -75p.


AUDNZD We got a long candle yesterday but with wicks on either end almost the size of the body. So accurate prediction there that bulls and bears would wrestle this one. Today we have all pointing up except short stoch still pointing down but now past the 50% line. I think mixed signals today but overall may go long.
Friday had a nice short candle. EMAs are still flat along with MACD also flat from on zero line but up from below it. Short stoch points down but below 50% line and long stoch points up but above 50% line. Mixed signals. No trade.

So 3 new orders today. Lets see how many get triggered in the next 24hrs.

max

i like your updated trading method (post 139)... well written i use macd + 8 + 20 ma (20 from bb)... today i risk 50 odds pips for u/cad on daily let see how it works out this week?

cheers

Thanks mate. Good luck.

Due to the weather in USA and shutdown of markets I am going to take a breather today. Back tomorrow.

Can you explain how you use this and what sort of results you are getting? There may be a tip for others reading this thread. Thanks

It is similar to yours but you wrote very well as per post 139.
(English is not my main language and so I write short)

It is recommended to use the MACD and MAs for trend.
MACD bars above 0 plus MAs crossing up showing the potential uptrend, or vice versa.
Look for PA like PB, IB, OB for entry.
Daily and H4 tf give better PA.
Hope this helps.
Cheers

Thanks Pama

Sorry for the delay in updating this thread and thanks to all the PMs I got over the past couple of weeks.

I have been away playing around with entries and getting back to the roots of what I was trying to do with this system and so have today decided to update my current methodology for this system including a trade I am currently in using the entry rules.

So,

1. Open a Daily chart

2. Place a 6EMA and 21EMA on that chart based on closed prices.

3. Add Stochastic with settings 5,3,3

4. Add Stochastic with settings 20,12,12

5. Add MACD with standard settings of 12,26,9 on close

SIGNAL
ONLY look a full (ie no part of the candle or wick is touching either EMAs) and closed or near closed candles above a cross of the 6EMA above the 21EMA, and only look further if the angle of the 6EMA is strong (ie between 12 o clock and 2 o clock). This is the signal candle.

TRIGGER
If all 3 indicators signal lines point up, the signal is confirmed. This is the trigger.

ENTRY
Aggressive - Enter as soon as the signal candle is closed
Cautious - place entry order at top of signal candle
Extra Cautious - please entry order at top of 2 recent highs from the signal candle

For shorts, everything is the opposite.

STOPS - use either 2 candle low or 1.5 candle low or most recent low or 75p
POSITIONS - use 3% of account divided by the size of the stop
PROFIT - use 100p to begin with but keep moving it and the stop up daily. The set target is there in case it spikes while you are away from the desk.

ADDITIONAL POSITIONS - if a retrace candle occurs and the indicators still point up, even if the short stoch points down, enter another position. Another idea is to enter again as soon as the stop gets past break even. Then again when that 2nd one gets past break even and so on.

Here's an example.

Monday I saw the whole candle close below the 6 and 21 EMA crossunder. All indi's pointed down so I entered short aggressively. After 1 and a half days I am +30p and increasing.

WEDNESDAY 14th NOV 2012

Currently got 1 trade still open for GBPJPY. MACD and long term stoch point down still but short term stoch recently crossed up but still rather flat in oversold area. I think today it will continue short even though the day has started with a long move. Last night this pair sho tup +40p but then overnight drained back to -30p. Currently as I post it is around -12p having already been to break even twice this morning. Very unstable trade currently but lets see where it goes today.


No other signals today but a few good signals from last week would be around +100 to +200p each so far. Have to make sure we jump on the signals as they occur.

THURSDAY 15th NOV 2012

That did not work. GBPJPY was looking good for short action. My analysis was "MACD and long term stoch point down still but short term stoch recently crossed up but still rather flat in oversold area". I should not underestimate the importance of the short stoch cross. As soon as that green line points up we need to get out or avoid entry. It is just too volitile and unpredicable. I should have closed at -12p when i looked at it yesterday.


Another thing I have noticed is the timing. My software shows the new candle beginning at 0800 local as I am in Brisbane Australia. Very frequently any order I open or is triggered moves against me during the day but then for me when UK and especially when US markets open. Frequently it moves well into the night and then reverses in the wee hours of the morning and then against me during that next day.

So, going forward I am going to mark entries in the morning and check them again late afternoon in prep for UK open and then if everything still looks good, it should result in better entry prices.

No new orders today.

FRIDAY 16th NOV 2012

No orders were placed yesterday but a bunch of lines I drew where I might place orders worked well for me so today I have confidence to add orders to today's lines.

Below I have planced orders for:

USDJPY to buy after recent bounce off 21EMA and all indicators point up. Still placed the order at the high being cautious.


EURJPY placed order to buy under same conditions as above. Long term stoch points slightly down but its recently turned up slightly so lets hope its forgoing further upward movement.


EURGBP for long also. A bit premature but price was completly above 6EMA yesterday and long and EMAs look like the may cross today. Everything points up except for long term stoch which is only just about to move back up.


AUDCAD was to have an order for shorting but price was already there so I entered immediately. Everything points down although I am concerned with macd being so far above zero. Lets see.


For all of these I have used 1.5 or 2 candle highs or lows for stops and Targets of 200p to be managed daily.

I have also been working on a new daily system based on inside and engulfing candles where backtested and some forward testing has proven very profitable with good money management. I will post details of this one in a new thread once I get another week of forward testing confiming my results.

MONDAY 19th NOV 2012

On Saturday morning there is trading up till 0700hrs local so I got up early to check on my positions. Only 1 of the orders from Friday had triggered so I removed the others and also noticed AUDUSD looking good for short so entered it immediately.

So on Monday I have 2 positions open:

AUDCAD still looks good to move in my direction even though it is currently at -31p. This was an aggressive entry using half the distance between the close and low of signal candle after full candle appeared below 6ema but not after price AND 6ema crossed below 21ema. Looking at it now it should have been a perfect long entry as retrace and entry long. When will I learn to be patient?


AUDUSD looks good for short also but is currently at -49p. Another aggressive entry trying to pre-empt the emas crossing short. Bad move.