Another day of big swings in the Books.
Probably the most obvious feature on the chart is the clean bounce off the 50ema... again ((white circles))
The last time that happened formed the LOD for March 30, it completed the 50% retrace of the larger move fibbed on the left side of chart and initiated a 500 pip run to the North. It forms the low anchor for my current near term swing fib as well, shown by the shaded ellipses, and the upper edge of my lower S/R zone as represented by the gold shaded bars that have been on my Daily for quite a while.
Given the almost textbook "Dragonfly doji" at the bottom of this current run ((yellow shaded box))... I'd anticipate a bullish turn at this point, the only question being at what point in which session to look for it engaging. I say almost textbook except for the 36 pip upper wick on my 5pm EST Close. Given the enormous trange this thing has traveled in the last 24 hrs, I'm not quibbling over a couple dozen pips.
Looking for a "launch point" for a potential Bullish Reversal brings up this issue... We're coming up on a long weekend, multiple holidays on both Friday and Monday sessions that are sure to skew things every whichaway for all the reasons we anticipate, and that probably starting very soon, or already responsible for some of what we've seen today.
In other words, technically we ought to go up, but there's reasons in my other View to believe we could break lower as well given the state of things in the EZ on the heels of the the recent USD strength...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=amFG6IESMB_U&refer=benchmark_currency_rates
We're still reasonably close to that overall 50% fibo, the downturn is only 2 days old with the most recent 3600 high being the (almost) 78% retrace of that earlier move(shaded blue circle)... and todays low breaking back below the 14% fibo and nearly retesting the previous Low at 3100... And we're back where we closed 2 days ago, almost to the pip.
Any Retest and Failure of the 3050/3100 level erases the Bullish and reinstates the Bearish bias, at least imo.
So, I plan to sit back and watch, take notes, catch up on my Funnymentals and Wreckednicals, enjoy the weekend with my Best Pal Ever and a few other friends and all that sort of thing.
Ya'll enjoy yours as well.
Probably the most obvious feature on the chart is the clean bounce off the 50ema... again ((white circles))
The last time that happened formed the LOD for March 30, it completed the 50% retrace of the larger move fibbed on the left side of chart and initiated a 500 pip run to the North. It forms the low anchor for my current near term swing fib as well, shown by the shaded ellipses, and the upper edge of my lower S/R zone as represented by the gold shaded bars that have been on my Daily for quite a while.
Given the almost textbook "Dragonfly doji" at the bottom of this current run ((yellow shaded box))... I'd anticipate a bullish turn at this point, the only question being at what point in which session to look for it engaging. I say almost textbook except for the 36 pip upper wick on my 5pm EST Close. Given the enormous trange this thing has traveled in the last 24 hrs, I'm not quibbling over a couple dozen pips.
Attached Image
Looking for a "launch point" for a potential Bullish Reversal brings up this issue... We're coming up on a long weekend, multiple holidays on both Friday and Monday sessions that are sure to skew things every whichaway for all the reasons we anticipate, and that probably starting very soon, or already responsible for some of what we've seen today.
In other words, technically we ought to go up, but there's reasons in my other View to believe we could break lower as well given the state of things in the EZ on the heels of the the recent USD strength...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=amFG6IESMB_U&refer=benchmark_currency_rates
We're still reasonably close to that overall 50% fibo, the downturn is only 2 days old with the most recent 3600 high being the (almost) 78% retrace of that earlier move(shaded blue circle)... and todays low breaking back below the 14% fibo and nearly retesting the previous Low at 3100... And we're back where we closed 2 days ago, almost to the pip.
Any Retest and Failure of the 3050/3100 level erases the Bullish and reinstates the Bearish bias, at least imo.
So, I plan to sit back and watch, take notes, catch up on my Funnymentals and Wreckednicals, enjoy the weekend with my Best Pal Ever and a few other friends and all that sort of thing.
Ya'll enjoy yours as well.
FUBAR...