You're right. It probably just random noise. But it works day in and day out. As far as risk/reward, I don't think about it. The success comes from highly probable trades that only ask for 5 pips. It is really about grabbing a quick profit. If it goes against me, I wait for another signal and add to the position to break even or get a mall profit. I haven't had to add more than 3 trades. I know your going to say I will blow out my account, but not with money management. By that I mean my account is large and I trade small amounts. If I have to I can add more money to avoid margin call. I just cloed out a long USDJPY position on Wed. I had held it since 7-23 before the metdown. Yes it was a bad use of money, but instead of taking a $2000 loss, I took a $200 profit, plus over $2000 in swaps.