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- jzw replied Jan 25, 2012
there has been a good example on EUR which triggered Monday. How well you did depended totally on how you managed the trade. The risk was around 20 pips. So if your risk was R and you took 1/2 off at 1:1 then you might have made 0.5R - if you moved ...
- jzw replied Jul 26, 2011
Mr Breakout suggested a 13,39 SMA so I marked those on a 2011 Yen chart because its a good illustration of what I meant. If you look you'll see that the Yen had some monster trends but a 13,39 SMA cross gets hopelessly whipsawed and amazingly gets ...
- jzw replied Nov 5, 2010
One thing that is never mentioned when talking about divergence is that divergence is only obvious after the fact. If a market is coming down to re-test a price you are nearly always going to get divergences because of the way the indicators are ...
- jzw replied Nov 4, 2010
this is with hindsight as I didn't trade this but its the kind of thing I would look for. After Euro clears 1.3972 its obviously going up. So the next step is to look for ways to get long with defined risk. Notice that the market pulls back and then ...
- jzw replied Oct 12, 2010
in my view the short trade at resistance occurred earlier (where the blue arrow is) and worked. After the first test I would not be take the next test because price came back too quickly and did not get anywhere near to the lows ie no follow thru on ...
- jzw replied Jan 27, 2010
Piggleop - why don't you write your entry price, stop and target (if you have one) in the post, rather than scrawl it on the chart (does your charting package not have a text tool?). Looking at CAD - I can see 3 potential areas for long entries, if ...
- jzw replied Dec 11, 2009
Buying break-outs from consolidations in a trend is a common tactic in trading. I would say that it is the single best way to trade regardless of time frame. As long as the trend is strong the actual entry method is not that important. What really ...
- jzw replied Nov 30, 2009
Filtering — I'm not generally in favour of filtering DIBs, although I keep an open mind about it. Here's an example from Thursday's Dubai inspired risk asset sell-off/USD rally. The chart is EUR and there were two DIBs formed in the same ...
- jzw replied Nov 18, 2009
Here's an example from today. The two charts are both the same time period. The top is the Canadian $ (note this is the future and is quoted CAD/USD not USD/CAD as the cash market is) and the bottom GBP. On both charts, down means USD is ...
- jzw replied Nov 13, 2009
The thing I don't like about DIBS — Here's an example of a profitable DIBs from Thursday on EUR. If you'd taken this you could have made 100 pips on approx 30 pip risk. This was a particularly nice DIB because its forms in a downtrend off 1.50 ...
- jzw replied Nov 10, 2009
profitable systems - random results — Another picture of randomness, this time 100 random curves with the same 1.2 PF. Notice that after 100 trades a fraction of the curves are underwater. You can have fun generating your own on url and ...
- jzw replied Nov 10, 2009
Obviously positive expectancy is a must but so is the ability to stick to a winning plan during drawdowns. Any system with a profit factor of 1.2 (i.e. $1.2 won for each $1 lost) should yield an infinite amount of money if traded long enough but ...
- jzw replied Nov 4, 2009
EUR DIB whipsaw — DIB formed on EUR before econ data this morning. Unfortunately got a poke and reverse before a clean break. Arguable should have re-entered the breakout over 1.4770
- jzw replied Sep 16, 2009
GBP trades — Here are the results for GBP from 1/6 to 11/9. 46 trades in total. Compared to the Euro trades it has been much harder over this period to make money on GBP because a large number of trades only ran a few pips into profit (<50) ...
- jzw replied Sep 15, 2009
Euro trade distribution — From 1st June thru to 11 Sept I have 43 potential DIBs entries. During this time the Euro has been going roughly sideways and every one of the 43 would have been stopped out eventually. The first chart shows how far ...
- jzw replied Aug 25, 2009
Hi dim4ik42 yes the rules for taking profits was any close over 100 pips in profit. You can look at the list of trades to see how far some of them were above that. There is nothing really special about 100 pips, although its approximately 0.5 ATR. ...
- jzw replied Aug 6, 2009
EUR DIB — DIB formed in consolidation and broke to downside. 5 min chart shows retest of breakout level. Small profit as we approach ADP numbers... as always entering trades is easy, managing them more difficult.
- jzw replied Jul 31, 2009
8drem - I don't know why you think that. DIB on EUR has had a solid week. By my reckoning there have only been 2 DIB trades this week both on Thursday. One was a scratch, the other would be still open and has 200 pips for a 40 pip risk. All of the ...
- jzw replied Jul 30, 2009
Nice graphic on the weighing scales. My opinion is that the all markets are unpredictable most of the time. The trick for a trader is to find small pockets of predictablilty where the odds of a trade are in your favour. There was an example on ...
- jzw replied Jun 17, 2009
USD/CAD — If the recent USD strength continues we may see a breakout on USD/CAD. The daily chart has had resistance at 1.1355 and the hourly chart has been pushing into that area on the last two days.
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