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- EventsTrader commented 18 hr ago
I see a report a little weaker than the market interpreted. 8.49 million job openings, a slight decrease compared to February 2024. This level indicates a relatively strong labor demand but shows a ...
- EventsTrader commented 18 hr ago
Weak but significant price pressures persist. Prices Index increased significantly to 60.9 percent, up from 55.8 percent, which could signal rising input costs for manufacturers. It could squeeze profit margins if not ...
- EventsTrader commented 19 hr ago
Agreed. Lots of imbalances.
- EventsTrader commented 20 hr ago
Strong. Goods-producing: +47,000 jobs. Service-providing: +145,000 jobs. Notable increases were in Leisure/Hospitality (+56,000) and Professional/Business ...
- EventsTrader commented 44 hr ago
I wouldn't say we're experiencing a wage spiral. The thing the Fed is most afraid of. But it doesn't look like the Fed can't bring down inflation further (from the levels we're at), at least anytime soon. There's no justification for the rate cut ...
- EventsTrader commented 44 hr ago
Hot Compensation costs increasing across all categories. The real increases, although smaller due to inflation adjustments, indicate that wage growth is slightly outpacing inflation, particularly for state and local ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 26, 2024
Hot report. Rounded to 0.3%, Core PCE actually came out a little higher at 0.317%. Compounded that would be 3.87% y/y. Personal income saw an increase of $122.0 billion or 0.5%, and ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 25, 2024
Yup. I agree we should see PCE tick up. The forecast (and prior) of 0.3% m/m is too high of a monthly value for the Fed to justify the narrative of inflation coming back down to 2%, at least anytime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a hot ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 25, 2024
Big miss. Growth in Real GDP in Q1 2024 is primarily due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 23, 2024
Aside from the downward Fed revision, much stronger than expected. 693K (seasonally adjusted annual rate) new houses sold in March represents an 8.8% month-over-month increase from the revised February rate of ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 23, 2024
Very weak report. Input prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting inflationary pressures persist. The Flash US Composite Output Index is at a four month low of 50.9, barely above the 50.0 ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 16, 2024
Weak report. There were 1,458,000 units authorized by building permits in March, which is 4.3% below the revised February rate There were 1,321,000 housing ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 15, 2024
The US consumer remains strong. Three largest gains and the three steepest drops m/m: Nonstore retailers experienced the largest increase with a 4.7% gain. Gasoline stations saw an ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 11, 2024
Mixed bag, some cooling. 0.6% increase in final demand services. Final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 10, 2024
Dissent. Coming to a Fed near you. Last Friday, FOMC Gov Bowman said this: It is possible the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation. Market is currently pricing in a Sept and Dec rate cut. Wishful thinking?
- EventsTrader commented Apr 10, 2024
Very hot. Takeaways: CPI m/m was 0.378% and core CPI m/m was 0.359%. Both rounded up to 0.4%. Market was expecting low 0.3s. Core CPI y/y came in at 3.8% ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 5, 2024
Solid report signaling continued strength in the US labor market. Significant job gains were noted in healthcare, government, and construction sectors. Government employment rose by 71,000, largely in local government. ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
Slightly weak report. Not as weak as the market reaction would lead you to believe. Compared with the manufacturing sector, while both sectors are growing, the rate of change in the services sector is slowing down compared to manufacturing, which is ...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
Bostic, generally a dove, expects just one rate cut this year: url Lots of rebalancing will need to happen.
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
100%. Higher oil prices haven't been baked into the inflation numbers yet. A tick up in inflation is coming and the writing is on the wall. Fedspeak has slowly been transitioning from rate cut 'this summer' to rate cut 'later this year'. Market is ...