Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is a close one to call. Markets reckon there’s a 60% chance of easing, but we’re less convinced. While we are likely to get three, or maybe even four, external monetary policy committee (MPC) members voting for a rate cut at this meeting, it’s not clear that the other five ‘internal members’ - including Governor Carney - have been convinced. We expect the committee as a whole to vote to keep rates on hold this week. From the Markit PMIs to the Bank’s own surveys, sentiment indicators have picked up following December’s election. And despite some disappointing ‘hard’ data points, we ... (full story)