Although we have only a few data points in hand, the odds are swinging solidly toward another Fed rate cut at the end of this month. If tomorrow’s employment report reveals an ongoing loss of momentum in the U.S. labor market, a rate cut will be locked in. Given fairly resilient U.S. data and a divided Fed at the September FOMC meeting, I believed the Fed was positioned to hold rates steady in October with the risks tilted toward a rate cut. That view assumed continued data resilience. The data, however, is not cooperating. Notably, the stress in manufacturing apparently intensified in September. The latest report ... (full story)