I want to make three key points in this speech. With persistently high Brexit uncertainties and softer global growth, the UK economy has weakened markedly in recent quarters, opening up a modest amount of spare capacity. The economy could follow very different paths depending on Brexit developments. But in my view, even assuming that the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit, persistently high Brexit uncertainties seem likely to continue to depress UK growth below potential for some time, especially if global growth remains disappointing. In such a scenario – not a no-deal Brexit, but persistently high uncertainty – it probably ... (full story)