A yield curve inversion (when long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates) seems to be one of the few recession indicators that actually “works.” No one knows whether it will continue to “work” in the future but even if you know a recession is coming, it might not help you time the stock market as much as you think. In a recent piece at Fortune, I looked at a new research paper that outlines what happens when you get out of stocks and move into safe assets when the yield curve inverts. The results may surprise you. One of the biggest surprises to market participants this year has been the big ... (full story)