At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Jeff Gundlach said that we’re at a "moment of truth" that could break either way. So, now is not the time to have high conviction about the economy or markets. Showing a chart of the US budget deficit as percent of GDP, Gundlach warned investors about rising deficit without a recession. The deficit combined with with the Fed’s balance sheet roll-off, will mean $2–$3 trillion in new Treasury issuance. Gundlach thinks this "situation is set to explode in 2019" and also sees net tightening starting next year, adding that the market is starting to realize it. As such, ... (full story)