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Euro poised for even bigger rally against the dollar, if past patterns hold
The euro seems poised to rally to much higher levels against the U.S. dollar over the coming years, especially if history is any guide and forward macro-politics provide any impetus. For the last two and a half years the dollar has traded in a tight range between 1.05 and 1.15 to the euro. I believe the recent breakout above 1.15 portends major upside for the euro. Looking back over the longer term, the exchange rate exhibits significant multiyear cyclicality with strengthening and weakening legs that last six or more years. That has happened in two past cycles and appears to be happening in the current cycle. ... (full story)
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