The main development here in the last full week of October is the sharp rise in bond yields. US 10-year yields rose nine bp this week coming into today's session, which features the first look at Q3 GDP. The two-year yield is up four bp. European 10-year benchmark yields mostly rose 11-17 bp. UK Gilts were are the upper end of that range. Two-year yields are 3-5 bp higher. The odds of a Fed hike in December has risen this week and depending on precise assumptions about where Fed funds will trade, have risen around five percentage points to be a little over 70%. This does not seem to adequately explain the rising long ... (full story)