We maintain our EURUSD 1.15 three month target. The target was based on the following rationale: 1- We do not expect the Fed to hike this year (Credit Suisse has the first hike penciled in for May 2017) despite the market still pricing in a 50% probability of this. 2- We think any US political risk elevation going into the November 8 Presidential Election would boost liquid, defensive currencies like EUR. 3- We see the ECB as likely to deliver only marginal new easing measures in December. What would make us revise our view? Firstly, it is still possible that the political environment in Germany is slow ... (full story)