Non-farm payrolls preview: Nonfarm payroll growth likely posted a solid 200,000 in April, driven once more by service-providing firms. Of this, government hiring likely contributed 5,000, which is a more modest clip than the 20,000 pop in March. We find support to our outlook from the push lower in jobless claims and improvement in the Conference Board’s labor market differential measure. There may be a payback in manufacturing jobs after two sizeable declines in February and March, but the early manufacturing survey data have been mixed. Housing starts have recently slowed, which could lead to a slower pace of ... (full story)