The April payroll report is particularly important since it will provide valuable input on whether i) the labor market sidestepped tighter financial conditions in Q1; ii) investment in labor can continue to decouple from physical investment in machinery and equipment; or decouple from a softer corporate profits profile; and iii) weak Q1 Temp employment has been a precursor to broader payrolls weakness. After the April ADP figure, the market is likely pricing in a NFP number toward the bottom of the 160K – 315K economist range, i.e. a number broadly in line with DB’s 175K forecast. A 200K type NFP number would then be ... (full story)