Over the past year and a half, the outlook for USD has been closely linked to the outlook for the Fed and the amount of policy divergence. However, with some US indicators weakening and financial conditions tightening, the outlook for the US is being questioned. This leaves USD at a crossroads. On the one hand the US economy could reassess itself and the Fed may continue on a path of normalisation, leading to further USD gains. On the other hand, economic conditions may change sufficiently to alter meaningfully the path of normalisation, stopping it or even reversing it, leading to further depreciation and likely ... (full story)