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Why the unemployment rate could fall to 3.8%
The current economic recovery has, by most measures, been slower and steadier than almost any that have come before. On the one hand, the expansion has lasted 77 months — the fifth-longest since 1900. On the other, it’s taken longer than any recovery since World War II to reach the same growth in output, according to Minneapolis Fed data. But David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, says the current recovery actually does resemble the others in one respect — the speed at which the labor market healed itself. He points out that, since 1960, each expansion has generated a decline in the ... (full story)
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