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What moves the stock market?
Random shocks and long-term trends It is well understood that the stock market is volatile and difficult to predict. What is less well understood is why. What are the primitive sources of economic variation that drive these random fluctuations? The vast majority of commentary in the press, not to mention most economic theories, asserts that the market is driven by shocks (unpredictable fluctuations) to macroeconomic fundamentals that have important consequences for economic growth. We argue here, however, that the most important random forces behind the longer term gains in the US stock market have not been drivers ... (full story)
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