The U.S. economy very likely contracted in the first three months of the year. Friday’s GDP report will show just how ugly things got. The Commerce Department estimated last month that gross domestic product—the broadest sum of goods and services produced across the U.S.–grew at a paltry 0.2% annual pace in the first quarter. But a batch of data since then suggests output was far weaker, and the agency will release a revised estimate Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The best guess of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal is that GDP fell at a 1% annual pace from January through March. That would mark the third time ... (full story)