SUMMARY • Business confidence and firms’ signals on the employment, investment and activity front are receding. They’re receding from high levels though, so let’s keep it in perspective. • The growth side of the economy still looks okay; optimism is just progressively being tempered. There are risks though, and declines are looking more trend-like. • Inflation expectations fell to a historical low. A low headline inflation rate will be playing a role, but it’s notable that inflation expectations are tracking below the inflation target midpoint; that’s unusual. The economic patient is beginning to suffer a few ... (full story)