The US dollar's recovery last week may not get the kind of fundamental support that medium and long-term investors would like to see to raise the confidence that the two-month correction has run its course. Owing to a greater deterioration of net exports and a smaller than expected inventory build, Q1 GDP is likely to be revised sharply lower. The 0.2% expansion may turn into a 0.8-1.0% contraction. Although it is backward looking, especially given that the second quarter is two-thirds when the revision is announced, it does have an important implication. It means that rather than raise rates in June, as many of us ... (full story)