Predicting big market crashes is a difficult business, many would say impossible. If enough investors believe a cataclysm is coming, their selling will simply make it happen sooner -- a dynamic that would quickly render any convincing forecasting method obsolete. Nonetheless, a pair of physicists -- drawing inspiration from the market for bitcoin, no less -- might be on to something. Jonathan Donier and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, both of whom work at Paris-based hedge fund Capital Fund Management, started from an obvious idea: It would be easy to foresee big crashes if you could monitor the actual thoughts and ... (full story)