Friday is jobs day. In a note Thursday, Goldman's David Mericle forecast that employers added 220,000 jobs in March, down from 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate stayed unchanged from February at 5.5%. Mericle highlighted the one reason why the jobs report could beat expectations: Recent trend. Payroll gains have averaged 288k/293k/275k over the last 3/6/12 months, Hatzius notes. Moreso, the recent average is above the consensus forecast of 245,000 for March. And here's why the jobs report could be dismal: Initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average leading to the week in which the survey for the ... (full story)