With less than six weeks left until Christmas, Deutsche Bank 1.25 year-end target for EUR/USD has already been met. What next? "Near-term, we are maintaining our 1.25 forecast as is, and would take profit on EUR/USD shorts," DB advises. DB outlines 3 reasons behind this view: First, the currency has run ahead of its real rate differential, which we consider to be the best metric for judging relative central bank divergence. Second, the near-term portfolio flow picture appears to have stabilized. Our high-frequency equity monitor was pointing to very large outflows up to October. Finally, positioning looks stretched. ... (full story)