The autumn brings a raft of risk events which could reconfigure the political and economic landscape in G10 FX. In this regard, BNP Paribas presents some of these key risk events that will have significant impact on the GBP, EUR, and USD. 1- GBP: Scotland’s referendum, is a key risk event heading into the autumn. Our base case is that on September 18, Scotland votes against independence, particularly given the narrowing popularity of the ‘yes’ camp for independence. Nonetheless, there will be heightened uncertainty heading into the referendum. A ‘yes’ vote would lead to prolonged uncertainty over the agreement of ... (full story)